2017 Wimbledon Quarter Final: Preview and Prediction – Querrey vs Murray

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Note: This isn’t a typical match-preview I usually do and the reason for that is on this occasion I’d rather it be more aimed to the betting and trading community who are interested in the markets for this match. I will be a little more direct and less analytical. It’s not going to be structured or neat. This is fairly rushed and a casual piece.

In my view and from what I am strongly sensing, Andy Murray is concealing just how bad his hip injury is. Every match he has played in has been a struggle up till this point. Of course an early hip-turn plays an integral role in players being able to generate more power/pace. It’s needed in virtually every shot in the modern game for generating power, baring the volley.Whilst we know Murray is a player that uses his opponent’s pace/power rather than creating his own and that this is also a fast surface, he is still going to be hindered when standing there to serve. I believe it’s why he has been broken an overwhelming number of times in this tournament already.

I don’t see the same fluid and confident mover around the grass this year. He strongly appears to me to be severely handicapped. I suspect his physiotherapist has been working on him day and night and the “hope” from the team was that this would have cleared up by the second week and latter rounds. I don’t believe it has. Here we are in the second week and he is still very much playing extremely under-par. Of course he does not want to say anything in interviews as he does not want to give away any mental edge or encouragement to his opponent.

Paire had dozens and dozens of chances yesterday and chucked them all down-the-drain in typical silly French tennis player fashion. Fognini had chances and chances the other day and did the same exact thing. Choking like the enigma he is from 5-2 up in the fourth set. I was neither at all impressed with Murray against Bublik or Brown. The results look “pretty”s according to the scoreline, but the performances are hard to look at. It’s all going under the radar.

Now he comes up against a player with a game that fits really well for grass in a certain sense. A player who has underachieved throughout much of his career. A player who on his day can beat just about anyone on this surface if he’s serving consistently well enough. A player who’s backhand has improved significantly. A player who has no idea just how good he is or how good he can be, which is sometimes a good thing. It’s why I call him goofy. 

Murray’s second serve has always been a weakness and yes on grass, it’s less vulnerable, because the slice he puts on the ball reacts favourably off the surface, concealing it’s lack of MPH. However. He now isn’t moving well enough (Due to the minor hip injury) to compensate for that problem. Querrey as we know has a BOMB forehand and can also penetrate pretty well now a days, consistently, off his backhand. So Murray will be finding it really hard to hold onto his serve more times than Querrey holds onto his.

I genuinely believe that our Samantha can walk away the winner on Wednesday. Of course it’s a massive deal beating Andy Murray on centre court at the museum tournament, in front of his home fans, but he has positive experiences and memories to fall back on. He’s beaten Nadal this year in Acapulco (Slow hard court) and Djokovic last year, here, at Wimbledon, on the grass. He’s match-tight and match-sharp and after missing several match-points today versus Anderson in the 4th set and going onto lose that respective set, he went onto come back and win in 5. That is a character-builder. That is overcoming a huge mental barrier. For me, we certainly could be witnessing the biggest upset of this years’ Wimbledon on Wednesday.

These Betting odds are stupid. Pathetic. Ridiculous. Idiotic. The product of ignorance and “Big 4” hysteria and Andy being the defending champion.

Trading Perspective:

Back Samantha Querrey early pre match and trade out after he wins the first set. If Murray wins the second set, get back in the market at near to what were the pre match odds and trade when Samantha (Hopefully) breaks. Continue the pattern. There will be ups and downs and I believe Murray will be losing his serve a lot. I expect choking from Samantha throughout the match, so make sure you trade, as he isn’t the greatest front-runner. Afterall, he is the human Goofy.

Betting Perspective:

Not an inplay trader & prefer to use a bookmaker & just bet on the result then the bets I recommend to you are:

+2.5 sets Querrey at around 1.87 – So this means Querrey to win a set basically
Over 35.5 games in match at around 1.90 – There to be over 35.5 games played in match
Over 3.5 sets in match at 1.83 – Self explanatory
Querrey to win at 5.75 (Huge odds)

Prediction: Querrey should definitely take atleast a set and if he doesn’t bottle and choke it, letting Murray back in, he’ll win. It is may be a big if, but one thing’s for sure this one screams to me like it’s gonna be a 4 or 5 set soap opera.

Former British University player, now working as a Tennis Trader on the Betfair Trading Exchange, making pre-assessment of matches played on the pro tour. I do this is by weighing up how the players strengths and weaknesses match-up against the other. With this I also incooperate factors such as preparation for event, state of fitness/health, morale/momentum, humidity/wind etc. All these factors enable me to arrive at a gut feeling summary for who I believe will walk away with the W against their name. Tennis is the most psychological sport in the world alongside Golf and Boxing, so while analysing the match-up is prevalent, its importance should also be weighed in accordingly with how capable the player(s) are at performing on the crux moments.
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