Sell High on Julius Thomas

Reading Time: 3 minutes

Julius Thomas
Julius Thomas

Sell High on Julius Thomas. Yes I said it. Now is the time to move Julius Thomas. I know you are thinking its crazy to consider shipping out one of the elite players who can single handily win a week for you, but hear me out. You should sell Julius Thomas (and trust me, someone in your league will give you premium value for him).

This article actually started as a recommendation to buy low on Julius Thomas following his 3rd straight poor performance:
“Buy low on Julius Thomas. Against San Diego, Julius only had 2 receptions for 23 yards and 6 receptions for 50 yards in his last 2 games, but he is a matchup nightmare and one of Peyton’s favorite targets. Peyton will continue to keep everyone happy in this prolific offense by spreading it around.”

A closer look into this season’s statistics shockingly reveal just how touchdown dependent he is. In Denver’s offensive juggernaut, Julius Thomas has a relatively small role (and it has been getting smaller). Thomas is the redzone threat. Now if you are going to have a niche role, this is the role you want, especially with Peyton Manning. The problem is touchdowns are fluky and tough to rely on. They come in waves and can disappear without warning.

Why would you ever want to give up the #3 ranked tight end (standard scoring)? The numbers say it all.

Receptions: 30 10th ranked TE (Jace Amaro has 32)
Targets: 41 10th ranked TE (tied with Larry Donnell)
Yards: 327 14th ranked TE (behind Jared Cook)
Touchdowns: 9 1st ranked TE (tied with Antonio Gates)

Julius Thomas currently has 86 points (CBS standard scoring). Following Julius Thomas are Martellus Bennett and Greg Olsen with 83 and 80 points respectfully (in PPR they are both well ahead of Julius Thomas). Even more telling is that they have each been targeted over 20 more times this season. In his last 3 games Thomas has only 10 receptions for 101 yards and 2 touchdowns (both came 3 weeks ago against the Jets). Thomas’ touchdown and fantasy production is unsustainable unless he starts receiving more targets, and that is highly unlikely since he is sharing the field with Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Ronnnie Hillman, and Peyton’s favorite new toy, Emmanuel Sanders. Add in that since the bye week (4 games) Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders have combined for 9 touchdowns and 926 yards (pre bye 175 yards and 1 touchdown).

Also Read:  Teams Shouldn't Pay NFL Running Backs a Lot Anymore

Games 1 – 2: 11 receptions 143 yards 4 touchdowns 13 targets
Games 3 – 4: 9 receptions 83 yards 3 touchdowns 11 targets
Games 5 – 6: 8 receptions 78 yards 2 touchdowns 12 targets
Game 7: 2 receptions 23 yards 0 touchdowns 6 targets

We can see that while the targets have been consistent at an average of 6 per game, his receptions, yards and touchdowns are regressing. Meanwhile, Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham are both averaging 8 targets per game and this includes games where both have played injured. When healthy, both Graham and Gronkowski have averaged 10 targets per game.

The reason to sell high on Thomas now is that his perceived value is much higher than his actual value. Julius Thomas is viewed as one of three elite tight ends. In reality he doesnt match up. Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski are the #1 options on their teams while Thomas is only the 3rd option for the Broncos. Graham and Gronkowski also make plays all over the field while Thomas is finding his role reduced to primarily the redzone. Lastly Thomas is a poor blocker and finds himself on the sidelines in key situations. This clearly shows that Julius Thomas should be ranked a tier below Graham and Gronkowski.

This is not to advocate just getting rid of Julius Thomas. He will have some monster games moving forward and there is a large demand for him. The red flag is that the lack of targets and touchdown dependency. The best strategy is to flip Julius Thomas in a one-for-two trade. Try to fill a hole at RB or WR with an elite player and plug-in a replacement tight end. Many of the lower ranked tight ends will not have an upside anywhere near Julius Thomas’s, but an elite RB and consistent TE play will help your team succeed in the long run.

Notify of
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

Tewatia plays blinder as Rajasthan chase historic total to beat KXIP

Rahul Tewatia hit 5 sixes in an over as Rajasthan Royals chased down the highest score in Indian Premier League history to beat Kings XI Punjab by four wickets on Sunday.
Also Read:  Russell Wilson Is An All-Time Great QB
Tewatia hit Sheldon Cottrell for five sixes in the 18th over and added another six of the next ball he faced as Rajasthan chased down 224. Jofra Archer hit 13 from 3 balls to see the side home. Rajasthan beat their own record – they...

NRL Finals Loom as Regular Season Concludes

The first fixtures of the National Rugby League's finals series are locked in after the final round of the regular season came to an end today. The Competitors While Penrith Panthers had already secured the minor premiership and the top eight were determined two rounds ago, some key positions were still open and the race for those positions made for some entertaining footy. The Newcastle Knights failed to hold sixth place, going down on Friday to a...

Russian GP – Race Preview

Russian Grand Prix can be a boring race so let's hope this race gets off to a great start. The only memory I have of the Russian GP is Valtteri Bottas letting Lewis Hamilton win. Last race at Mugello was an exciting race. With two red flags and one horrible crash. And Ferrari 1000 celebration wasn't the best either, but that might be because of the strict rules now during COVID 19. So I am happy...

Benny Leonard: Always A Champion

If you sat down with a group of boxing fans under the age of say, 50, and began to talk about whether Benny Leonard really is a Top-10 all-time fighter, you'd probably have a cacophony of voices barking at you about how great "Sugar" Ray really was. Tell them you were talking about Benny Leonard though, and you might hear a lot of "Who's that?" from the same group. But Benny Leonard most definitely belongs...

The Green Light: The Rugby Championship 2020

In what has been a challenging year for many rugby fans and mainly the players, the Southern Hemisphere's Rugby Championship 2020 tournament has just been confirmed for the back end of the season. The Rugby Championship tournament - previously known as the Tri-Nations - was inaugurated in 1996 with the three rugby-rich countries; Australia, New Zealand and South Africa, all contesting for the converted trophy. In 2012, the tournament expanded to add the South...

IPL Talking Points

Efficient CSK get the job done again Before the tournament began, the Chennai Super Kings were touted to struggle by everybody analysing the game. But, on the opening day, post the opening powerplay overs, MS Dhoni proved once again why the IPL betting odds are always in their favor. From a position where they could have chased a tall score, CSK restricted MI to a chaseable total and then led by solid innings from...

Rahul’s Historic Ton Thumps Bangalore

KL Rahul struck the highest score by an Indian in Indian Premier League as Kings XI Punjab beat Virat Kohli-led Royal Challengers Bangalore by 97 runs. Rahul, who scored 132 not out, also achieved the highest individual score by a captain and the best for a Kings XI Punjab player with a generous Royal Challengers Bangalore bearing the brunt of his assault, offering little in the form of resistance. After being invited to bat first, KXIP...

The Torchbearers Of Modern Football

We are standing at the end of an era that was tinted with brightness and glam. Two of the greatest sportsmen ever to grace the surface of earth are at the twilight of their careers. They are aliens, some say. Some say they are superheroes in shorts. Two names at the heart of the footballing world, for the best part of two decades. The torchbearers of modern day football. The pace-setters of the business...

Different Options For Purchasing Golf Shoes

Golf is one of the most popular sports among wealthy and upper middle class men. While some play golf competitively, others play golf as a hobby and for networking with others. The performance of the golfer depends to some extent on the golfing gear and equipment which he is using. Usually golfers are wearing special golf shoes, which are designed so that the golfer can play his shots comfortably, without slipping. Hence many of...

Russell Wilson Is An All-Time Great QB

Russell Wilson, 0 MVPs, 0 MVP votes, 0 respect. He is one of the best quarterbacks I've ever seen, and he is showing himself to be the MVP so far this year. Russell Wilson at every stage of his career has consistently been elite and has carried the Seahawks into relevancy. He is underrated, has been elite, and has been one of the best QBs in the world since he's gotten here. How is it that...

Social Connect


Trending Now

NRL Finals Loom as Regular Season Concludes

The first fixtures of the National Rugby League's finals series are locked in after the final round of the regular season came to an...
Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!
Would love your thoughts, please comment.x