Week 1 of the NFL is complete, and already, it’s proven that the rushing renaissance is here to stay. Rule changes and innovative coaching made the 2010s a golden age for passing the football. Now, defenses have finally caught up. As a result, the pendulum swung back the other way in favor of running backs.
As evidence of this, passing yards per game have declined from over 240 in 2020 to just 188 this year. While that might mean fewer highlight-reel catches, this has opened the door for rushing to return to the forefront. From a nadir of only 109 rushing yards per game in 2015 and 2016, the 2024 average is over 120.
As might be expected from these numbers, there were some eye-catching performances on the ground across the NFL. Using advanced metrics from NFL Next Gen Stats means it is possible to quantify rushing better than ever before. Here are the most impressive showings by running backs from Week 1.
Embed from Getty ImagesExpected Yards – Giving Running Backs Due Credit
Before that, what those advanced metrics tell us needs explaining.
Central to this discussion is the notion of ‘expected yards’. This may sound faintly ridiculous for those used to working with actual rushing yards. However, closer inspection reveals that it explains many people’s basic intuition about the NFL. That is to say, people understand that running backs are not solely responsible for the number of yards they gain when carrying the ball.
NFL fans might frequently complain that their team struggled to run the ball well behind a weak offensive line. Conversely, opposing team fans will criticize high totals as the product of blocking rather than running back skill.
Expected yards is a method of solving these thorny issues by isolating just the impact of running backs. It divorces them from their offensive line or the quality of the defense they face.
Embed from Getty ImagesRYOE – The Gold Standard for Running Backs
These statistics are based on a complex statistical model scientists Phillipp Singer and Dmitry Gordeev developed. Using it, Next Gen Stats can determine how many yards an average running back would rush for on a given play. This number is based on the speed, location, and acceleration of running backs, blockers, and defenders.
Next, the model compares the expected yards on all a running back’s carries to their actual yards. As a result, any additional yards above or below expectations is attributed to the running back.
The number of yards gained beyond what running backs should get is called their Rushing Yards Over Expected (RYOE).
One final wrinkle worth noting is a related metric called Rushing Yards Over Expected per attempt. This divides a rusher’s RYOE by how many times they carried the ball. Doing this makes it easier to see who was most efficient with the ball in their hands.
Week 1 Running Backs: who lit up the field?
Looking at the leader-board for highest RYOE totals this past week, one name stands head-and-shoulders above the rest: J.K. Dobbins of the Los Angeles Chargers.
Dobbins’ basic statistics were impressive in their own right, as he ran for 135 yards on only 10 attempts. With a rushing touchdown for good measure, Dobbins was electric to help the Chargers beat the Las Vegas Raiders 22-10.
Yet, the advanced metrics somehow paint Dobbins’ performance in an even more incredible light. He easily led all players in RYOE, gaining a staggering 98 yards more than he should have. As a result, Dobbins also lapped the field in RYOE per attempt. His 9.8 was over three times that of second place.
Even more remarkably, this was Dobbins’ first game since tearing his Achilles tendon in his opening match 2023. With a 46-yard run and then a 61-yard gain, Dobbins did not look to have lost his explosive burst.
Other Standouts
The rest of the top five features some familiar names, who all excelled in unfamiliar locations.
In a surprising move, the Green Bay Packers released their veteran Aaron Jones in March of this year. That paved the way for Jones to sign a one-year deal with the division-rival Minnesota Vikings. Jones has looked right at home in Minneapolis.
Against an admittedly poor New York Giants defense, Jones rushed for 39 yards over expected and a touchdown. His propensity to break tackles was a major contributor to the Vikings’ 28-6 victory.
Embed from Getty ImagesOnly a hair behind Jones in RYOE was his replacement in Green Bay, Josh Jacobs. After leading the entire NFL in total rushing yards back in 2022, some had questioned whether Jacobs could bounce back from a lacklustre 2023.
His 38 RYOE performance against the Philadelphia Eagles in Brazil should keep those doubters appeased for a while. That said, the loss of quarterback Jordan Love will put more pressure on Jacobs’ shoulders in the future.
Saquon Barkley, perhaps the biggest name to move locations this off-season, rounded out the group of established names, setting the pace for the rest of the league.
Though moving from the Giants to the Eagles (who share a division) has soured opinions of Barkley in the Big Apple, if his showing against the Packers was anything to go by, he won’t mind too much.
On top of catching a touchdown through the air, Barkley rushed for two more and tallied 27 RYOE, looking just as much an offensive force as ever.
Breakout Alert
While four of the top five Week 1 rushers were well-known running backs, the same could not be said for the man in fourth. As a formerly undrafted free agent filling in for possibly the best running back in the league, hopes weren’t exceptionally high for Jordan Mason against the New York Jets.
However, by the end of the game, the San Francisco 49ers had hardly missed Christian McCaffrey after Mason rushed for 147 yards (the second most of any player in Week 1). Moreover, his breakthrough was not just the product of the talent in San Francisco either, as 30 of those yards exceeded what was expected.
Most impressively, Mason faced the highest rate of eight players in the box (the area around the line of scrimmage) among all running backs. He was effective at drawing an extra defender into the run game and opening up opportunities for his team to pass.
Embed from Getty ImagesWho struggled in Week 1?
Conversely, some high-profile names struggled to open the new season, highlighting how fickle NFL rushing can be.
Devon Achane of the Miami Dolphins, who led the entire NFL in RYOE per attempt in 2023, ended up with -17 RYOE as the Dolphin’s offence was kept in check by the Jacksonville Jaguars. Meanwhile, James Conner – who also finished top-five in rushing efficiency last year – finished with -22 RYOE as his Arizona Cardinals team fell to the Buffalo Bills.
Embed from Getty ImagesFinally, Kyren Williams could not replicate the heroics of his breakthrough campaign for the LA Rams last season, falling 20 yards below expectations in an overtime loss to the Detroit Lions.
Of course, all three of these men are still exceptional football players. A sample size of a single game cannot predict the story of a whole season, so they all have plenty of time to turn things around. This shows how hard it is to rush in the NFL.
In just a week, the 2024 NFL season has seen some of its best rushing in a long time. Expect many more jaw-dropping runs to fill up your timelines as the season unfolds.
