Arsenal have a seven-point lead at the top of the Premier League table, and 18th-placed West Ham are five points from safety. The real race now looks to be for Champions League qualification.
Qualifying for the Champions League is invaluable. There is now a 36-team league phase, instead of eight groups of four teams. Finishing in the top eight in the league phase means automatic qualification for the knockout rounds. Teams placed ninth to 24th, then battled for the final eight spots.
Prize money was also increased by a third last season, with there being an overall prize pool of over £2bn. Teams received £15.7m for featuring in the league phase – that is, before matches even took place.
Liverpool earned an additional £8.4m for winning the league phase, and eventual winners PSG took home nearly £100m.
How does this affect the Premier League?
Premier League teams are under strict PSR (Profitability and Sustainability Rules). These rules mean they must not lose more than £105m over a three-year period, and they hugely affect clubs’ transfer policies.
Recently, this has led clubs to offload more academy products. Clubs didn’t pay any transfer fee to initially acquire these players, so they can bank all the money they receive when selling.
Good examples of this include Chelsea selling Conor Gallagher to Atletico Madrid and Aston Villa losing Jacob Ramsey to Newcastle. Neither team particularly wanted to let go of their player, but they needed to generate funds to comply with PSR.
Prize money is another way for clubs to balance their books. The Champions League is by far the most lucrative competition in club football, so qualification has a huge impact on future success.
Who is in the race for Champions League qualification this season?
Traditionally, the Premier League’s top four teams qualify for the Champions League, but another recent change now means that the top two performing football leagues earn another spot. This is basically determined by how well teams from each league do in European competitions.
Last season, the Premier League and La Liga received another spot, and this year, the Premier League is well placed to do so again. The race for the top four will once again likely become a race to finish in the top five.
Currently, this race looks extremely tight. The gap from Liverpool in fourth to Brighton in twelfth is just six points. Aston Villa are seven points further ahead. This means that the top three spots are likely already taken, leaving nine teams to fight for the final two places.
The Favourites
As it stands, Liverpool and United will qualify, while Chelsea is just a point off in sixth. All three teams have had indifferent seasons.
Liverpool will now welcome back Mohamed Salah from AFCON, and while they are winless in their last four Premier League matches, they are unbeaten in their last 10. Yet they do have a tough next three fixtures, including a home match against Manchester City.
United convincingly beat City last weekend, with the returning Bryan Mbeumo getting himself on the scoresheet. Interim manager Michael Carrick could earn himself the full-time job if he steers United into the Champions League.
Liam Rosenior got a big result against Brentford in his first Premier League game in charge of Chelsea. His next five league matches are all against teams in the bottom half, and he will hope that Cole Palmer can overcome his injury struggles.
The Hopefuls
Brentford, Newcastle and Sunderland are all currently only two points off fifth place.
Brentford have been a revelation under Keith Andrews, who is their former set-piece coach. Many tipped them for relegation, but Igor Thiago’s 16 league goals have propelled them into Champions League contention.
Newcastle had a poor start to the season, but three straight wins in the past month have put them back in the fight. Nick Woltemade has done well as a replacement for former star striker Alexander Isak. However, he has been goalless over the past five games and must regain his goal-scoring form.
Sunderland is this season’s surprise package. The Black Cats gained promotion through the Championship playoffs last season, and a complete summer rebuild has been a huge success. Granit Xhaka has been tipped as the signing of the season.
The Outsiders
A good run of form from Everton, Fulham and Brighton could still sneak them into the top five. There are also Europa League and Conference League spots to fight for.
Everton had 15 draws last season, but David Moyes has managed to turn more of them into wins this campaign. The Toffees coped well while Iliman Ndiaye and Idrissa Gueye were at AFCON, and summer-signing Thierno Barry has scored four goals in five games.
Fulham conceded a last-minute winner to Leeds in their last game, but before that, they were one of the league’s most in-form sides. Harry Wilson is having a fantastic season after almost joining Leeds last summer.
Fabian Hurzeler’s Brighton is unbeaten in four, including a draw against City. They play Fulham and Everton next and have a chance to leapfrog their rivals. They have already beaten City, Chelsea and Newcastle this season.
The Verdict
Liverpool would be hugely disappointed if they missed out on qualification. They are in the box seat. Florian Wirtz is finally beginning to find his feet in English football, and Hugo Ekitike can capably fill in for the injured Alexander Isak. Isak is also likely to return before the end of the season, possibly providing a much-needed final push.
Based on their fourth-place finish last season and having spent most of this campaign in the Champions League places, Chelsea are best placed to take the final spot. Reece James, Marc Cucurella, Moises Caicedo and Cole Palmer are top players, and Liam Rosenior should be able to rely on them to get the job done.
Just Missing Out
The two closest competitors to Liverpool and Chelsea are most likely Newcastle and Manchester United. Newcastle qualified for the top five last season, but losing Isak to Liverpool means that they aren’t quite the same team. New signing Anthony Elanga has so far disappointed, and Anthony Gordon has failed to hit previous heights.
United may also come close. Michael Carrick showed that his team can be dangerous, and his appointment as interim manager may help get the best out of Kobbie Mainoo and Bruno Fernandes. New frontmen Matheus Cunha and Bryan Mbeumo have also impressed. Yet a lack of consistency and a shaky defence may be their undoing. Before last weekend, United had only kept two clean sheets in the league this season.