Artur Beterbiev put on a career-best performance against Callum Smith this weekend. As the dust settles on a showing that was as violent as his failed drug test was controversial. The focus returns to his potential fight with Dmitry Bivol.
This all-Russian showdown is fantasised about by boxing fans for good reason. It is one of the most compelling fights in light-heavyweight history.
The potential contest appears to be the archetypal battle between an aggressive pressure fighter and a slick boxer.
Embed from Getty ImagesAlthough true, this description is a huge oversimplification of how the fight may potentially look. In reality, the contest will probably be decided by how both fighters react when forced from their preferred methods.
The Jabs
The offence of both men is first and foremost initiated by their jabs. Dmitry Bivol enjoys poking at his opponents to gauge distance with a long lead arm.
Embed from Getty ImagesOnce he establishes how far they are away Bivol stabs his jab between their guard and follows with more straights. It is the cornerstone of his game because it allows him to feel when he can land shots. Even more crucially though, it shows him when he’s in danger.
Artur Beterbiev conversely uses his jab as a punishing weapon to push his opponent out of stance. This is whilst also drawing out shots for him to counter. As opposed to Dmitry Bivol who jabs so he knows when to move, Beterbiev jabs mostly so he cannot be moved.
With his feet planted he uses his jab like a spear to open his opponent’s guard and off-balance them. All while he remains in position to punch. If they do fire back his elongated lead arm can obstruct shots or give him a balanced position from which to move and counter.
Who Has the Better Jab
The winner will probably be decided on who can best defend the others’ jab and land their own. This is probably why so many people favour Bivol. It is believed because of his status as an elite technical boxer that he will be able to land his jab without taking damage. Although this could happen it is based on misconceptions.
Embed from Getty ImagesIn reality, the men are the same height and Beterbiev will have a 1-inch reach advantage. It is also the case that Artur Beterbiev has shown a jab defence that is more varied than Bivol’s. Whereas Bivol will predominantly parry the jab or step back, Beterbiev will do both as well as slip the jab. This is something, as we will discuss, Dmitry Bivol rarely shows. It is a skill that will also crucially allow Beterbiev to try and land powerful counter-punches.
Stylistic Differences
The unmistakable difference then between the two fighters is in their willingness to step backwards. On the one hand, Bivol will often fight rounds where the majority of his movement is in a backwards direction. This works to draw his opponents forward so he can bounce forward and meet them halfway with straight punches. Usually, this is followed by an exit to either side. These exits of the engagement only re-establish his range so he can repeat the process.
Embed from Getty ImagesAlthough Bivol’s style is not reliant on his opponents moving backwards, he can exploit it when they do. Whenever Canelo put his back to the ropes to try and find a countering opportunity, Dmitry Bivol would fire long combinations of straight punches.
Many of these shots would land on the gloves but crucially the punches would occupy the space Canelo wanted to punch through. In this sense, Bivol is defensively minded even when at his most offensive. His shot selection is based on what can land only whilst also obstructing the path of counters.
Artur Beterbiev’s Pressure
Beterbiev on the other hand aims nearly exclusively to put his opponent to the ropes. Instead of Dmitry Bivol’s aim to occupy punching space, he thinks of offence first when he gets there. If his opponent reverts to the high guard, Beterbiev will punch at the openings and then punch at the new openings his shots create.
Embed from Getty ImagesFavouring short hooks and straights for this purpose, he will use the hook if his opponent is blocking the front of his face. If they try and block the side he will fire the straight through the middle. He has also been known to physically pull his opponent’s gloves out of the way with one hand to create openings for the other.
The trade-off between these two approaches is self-evident. Bivol has finished half of his fights within the distance, Beterbiev all of his. Conversely, Bivol has never been dropped whereas Beterbiev has hit the canvas twice in contests he went on to dominate.
How Reckless Is Artur Beterbiev?
Beterbiev has always shown that he fancies his chances in exchanges, but he has also shown smart ways of applying this pressure. Most recently against Callum Smith, he would finish his combinations by putting his hands on Smith’s gloves.
This, much like Bivol, occupied the space Smith wanted to punch through whilst also killing the punches at their source rather than blocking them after they built up power.
Embed from Getty ImagesWhen Smith’s corner smartly advised him to hook around Beterbiev’s controls, Beterbiev maintained a disciplined shrugged posture so his shoulders and arms would obstruct the path of the hook. It was only the hook to the body that Smith landed and it was often at the expense of eating the right hand.
To call Artur Beterbiev a wild pressure fighter also overlooks his fantastic framing game when opponents attempt to clinch. If he could not do this then opponents would have a much easier time burning the clock and poking their way to victory.
Embed from Getty ImagesInstead, Beterbiev knows to use his stretched-out lead hand to push them off. He also is reliably able to have his gloves inside his opponents when they attempt to clinch. This gives him an unobstructed path to placing his hands on his opponent’s head and neck so he can push them off.
All this means that his opponents do not get the valuable rest time afforded by the referee’s breaking of the clinch and recommencing the action. Instead, Beterbiev can prolong the exchanges in which he always has the power advantage.
Artur Beterbiev Can Emulate Dmitry Bivol
It is also worth mentioning that both his first knockdown against Callum Smith and his last one against Joe Smith Jr came when he was on the back foot. Here he took advantage of both men’s desperation to get on the offensive and scored devastating right hands over their jabs.
Given the lead he gives himself with his forward style, Beterbiev affords himself the luxury of taking a backward step. Turning himself for brief spells from the bull into the matador has proved very beneficial to him. Ironically his strategy in these moments is very similar to Bivol’s.
How Will Bivol Fight?
It seems all but certain that both men will have to adapt to each other when they meet. In the case of Bivol, his defence is currently based primarily on foot movement and blocking. If he feels threatened he will usually exit off and move laterally to the centre of the ring.
If he doesn’t feel threatened by a punch he will obstruct it with outstretched arms or put himself behind a high guard and absorb the punches on his arms.
Embed from Getty ImagesThe Beterbiev fight will be won for Bivol only if he can make these defences work. With regards to his movement, he is certainly faster than Beterbiev but it is also not inconceivable that Beterbiev could track him down in the mid to late rounds.
Dmitry Bivol’s use of the long extended guard will likely also save him from many punches. However, prolonged use of the high guard may be a capitulation of any round he uses it in. This is given how good Beterbiev is at dismantling a double-forearm guard.
Plan B’s?
If these defences do fail Bivol he may have to revert to the secondary defensive strategies. These would probably be clinching and moving his head. Unlike most defence first boxers, Bivol doesn’t excessively rely on eating time in the clinch.
Despite this, he has been known to use it when he feels threatened. Against the biggest puncher he has faced yet, Joe Smith Jr, it was a viable option whenever he felt threatened. As mentioned earlier, against Beterbiev, a bigger and more accurate puncher, he is facing a master at breaking the clinch. This therefore won’t be such an easy option for Bivol.
Embed from Getty ImagesBeterbiev should also have a solution to Bivol’s head movement in a scenario where he was forced to use it. Against Oleksander Gvozdyk, Beterbiev would wait for his opponent to slip a jab and instead of retracting the punch, place his forearm on Gvozdyk’s neck.
This would allow him to push his opponent off balance even further and follow up with punches. If moving your head rather than your feet to avoid punches allows you to be pushed off balance then Bivol’s preferred foot movement is proven right. The task of Beterbiev is to force his man to use his less preferred methods. This should be easier for him to capitalise on.
Possible Adaptations
If Bivol’s team recognise that they might be forced out of their game, it could be wise to pre-emptively fight in an unexpected way. This could involve flipping the script and adopting his aggressive style. As previously mentioned, his prolonged straight punching combinations when on offence obstruct the path of any return fire.
Embed from Getty ImagesBivol should maximise the time he spends keeping Beterbiev behind these punches. If he can he may minimise the time when he is in front of Beterbiev’s. This may seem unsustainable but, given how good Bivol’s conditioning is and what the alternative is, it could be a necessity.
In the case of Beterbiev, his very occasional backwards step might also help him. This would serve to draw Bivol into him as opposed to potentially walking onto shots all night.
This does however seem less likely to work than it did against Smith and Smith Jr. Whereas those two fighters were desperate to land shots, it seems unlikely Bivol would fall into that trap. His foot feints and lead hand activity would make it extremely difficult to time any counter shot.
Final Thoughts
If the Saudis can finally make the promoters put their differences aside and make Bivol-Beterbiev in 2024 then it is a must-watch. It must already rank on any short-list for the most stylistically compelling fights in the history of the Light-Heavyweight division.
Despite Beterbiev’s advanced age of 39 whenever the fight takes place, he still looks to be at the peak of his abilities. What every boxing fan is anticipating, is finding out how he does when matched up with a man of the calibre of Dimitri Bivol.
Image Credit: Deposit Photos
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