Mother Nature must be a horse racing enthusiast. We’ve all been moaning and groaning about the weather of late, but on the eve of the greatest flat racing festival on the planet, the sun finally decides to pop it’s head out. It’s likely to stay out for the majority of the Royal Ascot week too, so those rain ponchos can stay safely stuffed away at the back of the wardrobes. The countdown to the opening day’s race is now well and truly on, so make sure you check out the all the relevant stats and trends.
Embed from Getty ImagesQueen Anne Stakes (14:30)
The Queen Anne Stakes for horses aged 4 years old and over, is the annual Royal Ascot curtain-raiser. Eight furlongs is the trip and some of the stand-out previous winning trends include the following:
At least 1 previous win in a group 1-3 race
At least 4 previous flat wins
2+ previous wins over 8 furlongs
Had between 1 and 2 previous runs that season
Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
Roger Varian’s Charyn ticks all those boxes. The 4-year-old has been flying this season with two wins and a second. The second of those victories coming in the Group 2 Bet365 Mile at Sandown in April. The grey colt was also finishing like a train when second to another of today’s rivals, Audience, in another British Champions Series event, the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury last month.
Coventry Stakes (15:05)
The spotlight falls on some up-and-coming young 2-year-old stars in the second race on the opening day. Aidan O’Brien is the top all-time winning trainer of the Coventry Stakes, with ten previous successes, including last year’s victory, River Tiber. The most stand-out race trends are:
Won on their previous run before the Coventry Stakes
Ran within the last 32 days
Had 1 or 2 previous career runs
Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
Andesite who won on debut over 6 furlongs at York (well that was 33 days ago !!), beating Yah Mo Be There, fits the bill. Danny Tudhope takes the ride on Karl Burke’s colt, who is a son of Pinatubo. He was unbeaten as a 2-year-old, including winning the Chesham Stakes during the 2019 Royal Ascot Festival. The following year he would run another cracker at the Royal meeting when finishing second in the St James’s Palace Stakes.
Richard Hannon’s The Actor, is another who matches up on the trends front. Although he is currently outside the 8/1 price bracket, he may be punted in nearer the off. He also covers another one of the top trends as he was foaled in March (of 2022).
Embed from Getty ImagesKing Charles III Stakes (15:45)
It’s time for the sprinters to take centre stage over the flying five furlongs, in the event formerly known as the King’s Stand Stakes. Australian wonder horse, Miss Andretti, still holds the fastest winning time in the race, when she stormed to victory in the 2007 edition. Some high percentage race trends include:
Had at least 1 previous run at Ascot
An official rating of 112 or higher
Had won a Group race before
Michael Appleby’s Big Evs makes the cut. The sensational 3-year-old, who is aiming to extend his winning streak to four. One of those successes being his high profile victory in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint at Santa Anita. On his previous Ascot appearance, he galloped to glory in the Windsor Castle Stakes at last year’s Royal meeting.
St James’s Palace Stakes (16:25)
A small and select field for the day one feature contest as the first two home in the 2000 Guineas, Notable Speech and Rosallion lock horns again. Rosallion has since claimed victory in the Irish equivalent at the Curragh. Notable trends are as follows:
Have been in the top 3 in the betting
Had their last run within the last 26 days
At least 1 previous win over 8 furlongs
Had either 2 or 3 previous runs that season
They point to another head-to-head clash between the 2000 Guineas 1-2 and Richard Hannon’s Rosallion could reverse the order this time. Notable Speech hasn’t raced since his Classic win at Newmarket, 45 days, and Rosallion’s more recent run out could count in his favour.
Ascot Stakes (17:05)
The first handicap of the Royal Ascot Festival and it’s a long one, a very long one, over 20 furlongs (2 ½ miles). So long in fact, that National Hunt trainers such as Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins have both tasted success in the race in recent times. Some vital trends include:
Didn’t have at least 1 previous win at Ascot
Had at least 2 previous wins over 16-20 furlongs
Their last run within the last 52 days
A rating of 91 or higher
Several are still left in the reckoning after going through those tests: Pied Piper, Boher Road & Nusret. All three are trained by Irish handlers. Of them, Jarlath P Fahey’s Boher Road is the only one with flat form this season, having run in and stormed to victory in the FEXCO Handicap at Killarney last month.
Embed from Getty ImagesWolferton Stakes (17:40)
This contest was first staged in 2002 when Royal Ascot shifted to a 5-day format. The Gosdens have won the event on four occasions, the last of those successes coming with Monarchs Glen in 2018. The top trends are as follows:
At least 7 previous flat runs
Finished unplaced last time out
Had won 3 or more races during their career
Won over 1m2f or further before
Aged 4 to 6
Three are left standing following the stats cull: Checkandchallenge, Haunted Dream and Notre Belle Bete. Al Jehani’s Haunted Dream has been the most active of the three this season, with two of three 2024 runs coming in Doha. However, the grey’s prep race for Royal Ascot came at Epsom at the end of May, where he managed to finish 4th despite stumbling out of the stalls.
Copper Horse Handicap (18:15)
The curtain falls on the opening day’s Royal Ascot action with another long-distance handicap, again for the older types. This is only the 5th renewal of the 14-furlong contest, so trends are a little thin on the ground. We’ve not had a winner carry more than 9st 8lbs as yet though and none have been officially rated over 101. So it may prove wise to not spend too long looking at those runners at the top end of the race card. Three of the four previous favourites have finished 1st or 2nd, so Willie Mullins’ Belloccio should give jolly backers a decent run for their money any road.
All 35 races at Royal Ascot this week are being screened live on ITV/ITV4 and Sky Sports Racing. Check all the latest prices here.
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