For the most part, English Football looks to be at its strongest. Jude Bellingham is the star of Real Madrid’s new era, the England national team has achieved back-to-back European Championship Finals, and the “Big Six” will regularly find themselves in Continental Cup Finals.
However, everything isn’t as perfect for the English game as it appears. English clubs regularly find themselves in financial trouble, long-term managerial projects appear to be a thing of the past, and the gap continues to widen between the EFL and the Premier League.
Is Football Broken?
I have been having this debate with my father in recent years. Is Football broken? Has the game gone? Unfortunately, after years of backing the beautiful game, I have to concede that it is well and truly gone.
As a lifelong Baggies fan, I have become very accustomed to the EFL Championship. Having spent five of the last six years there, I have seen plenty of promotions and relegations go either way.
One major observation is the severe increase in newly promoted sides finding themselves immediately relegated back to the Championship—Burnley, Luton, Sheffield United, and Norwich, to name a few. The gap has widened, and it’s only going to keep getting bigger.
The Great Divide
At the climax of the 2022/23 season, Luton and Coventry met in the Championship play-off final. It would be a monumental moment for both sides, as it was Luton’s maiden voyage into the Premier League and Coventry’s first return since the inaugural Premier League season.
Luton would be victorious and debut in the 2023/24 season in the Premier League. However, the joy was short-lived. After adding 15 quality players to the side that had just won promotion, they were immediately relegated alongside Burnley and Sheffield United.
Both Burnley and Luton recruited well, yet they were barely in a sniff of survival. Nottingham Forest was the only side that ended up being dragged into the relegation battle towards the tail end of the season.
So why can’t these newly promoted sides compete in the Premier League, no matter how well they recruit?
Too Good to go Down
In years past, certain teams have been labelled as “Too Good to go Down.” These are usually teams that have a very bad start to the season but are never seen as in danger of being relegated.
Usually, it consists of teams like Everton or Newcastle, teams that you would expect to fight for a European spot. However, at the beginning of the season, you will look at almost every team in the Prem and label them “Too Good to Go Down”.
You would be mad to bet on a team like Brentford, Crystal Palace, or Fulham being relegated. Teams like Brighton, Newcastle, and West Ham are also expected to compete higher up in the table.
So, who does that leave? Nottingham Forest has money to spend and never looks at risk, Wolves, Bournemouth and Everton usually seem to find a way and the “Big Six” will never be broken. By rules of elimination, the three promoted teams have a massive disadvantage.
Doomed from the Start
The promoted sides have a mountain to climb before a ball is even kicked. They don’t have the same pull as the established sides, and their best players are usually poached before a ball is even kicked. A few seasons back, Norwich was a prime example when they immediately sold Emi Buendia.
Sheffield United all but gave up in the 2023/24 season. Selling stars such as Sander Berge and Iliman NDiaye and making a huge net profit by not replacing them. This lack of action from the owners saw them finish rock bottom with a dismal 16 points.
Right now they seem to have received that backing and it is paying off but you can’t help but wonder if any promoted sides will be able to stay up ever again. Leicester might with Steve Cooper at the helm, Ipswich could but have an almighty road ahead of them, but Southampton are dead and buried.
One saving grace for either Leicester or Ipswich is the situation at Wolves, which brings me to my next point…
Absentee Owners
Bad owners have become a regular occurrence in English Football. It seems that almost every club’s fanbase has an issue with the ownership.
However, Wolverhampton Wanderers’ complaints are more than valid this season. After losing star players like Max Kilman and Pedro Neto and not replacing them, the Wolves find themselves in the relegation zone, having only won once in their most recent match.
Gary O’Neil performed miracles to steer the Wolves clear of a relegation battle during the 2023/24 season after the owners sold key players and did nothing to replace them.
It has especially been a common trend across all the West Midlands sides. West Brom, Aston Villa, and Birmingham have all been subject to owners who lost interest and cut all funding.
Luckily, these sides were rescued, some waiting right to the brink of administration and bought by owners interested in treating the clubs like football clubs rather than a rich man’s commodity. The same can’t be said for Wolves at the time of writing.
Repeating Mistakes of the Past
The Football Association doesn’t appear to learn from past mistakes, allowing unfit people to purchase football clubs. We’ve already seen teams with rich history liquidate or come close.
Bury and Derby were both in turmoil and reached their assigned deadlines. Derby was purchased, but Bury was unfortunately dissolved. This was such a monumental moment in football history, yet we have learnt nothing from it. How many more teams need to follow Bury’s path before the FA starts protecting these historic clubs?
No football fan should ever lose their club.
One Big Payday
We find ourselves in a time where teams are desperate for promotion to the Premier League, purely for the financial aspect. Teams almost accept their eventual relegation and focus on building a team with a good chance of bouncing back into the Premier League the following season.
Luton and Ipswich signed some of the finest Championship footballers for their attempts at survival in the Prem. In Luton’s case, they signed Tahith Chong and Kaminski. Both performed admirably, but it wasn’t enough to survive.
This season, Ipswich have signed Liam Delap, Ogbene, Jack Clarke, and Muric. These players are outstanding for a Championship side but have no real top-division experience.
Luton, however, has managed to fund a new stadium, while Ipswich has spent its new riches on increasing its squad size with young stars. If it is to be relegated, with Kieran McKenna and that team, Ipswich will surely be fighting in the top half of the Championship.
The Covid Season
This seems to be a trend that started during the COVID-19 pandemic. As teams lost finances due to the global pandemic, promotion became crucial for some teams to keep their clubs running.
Football was halted during the 2019/20 season thanks to the pandemic. West Brom and Leeds were flying high. When football returned behind closed doors, financial damage was done nationwide.
The Baggies clung to their second-place spot despite a late surge from now Premier League mainstays Brentford. However, the prize money, alongside the Premier League TV money, would be immediately siphoned from the transfer kitty. Most of it was used to keep the club afloat and prevent them from laying off many of its staff.
The resulting season saw a mediocre transfer window, little money spent, and an immediate return to the Championship.
Since then, we haven’t seen many teams taking risks and breaking the bank to try to stay in the Prem. Financially, teams are so fragile that it isn’t worth the risk of overspending and then getting relegated. There is one exception.
Evangelos Marinakis
Owner of Nottingham Forest and Olympiacos, Marinakis has more than broken the bank across multiple seasons to keep his side Nottingham Forest in the Premier League. Forest was promoted via the playoffs during the 2021/22 season.
Throughout the 2022/23 season, they will spend over £150 million in transfer fees. Notable signings are Morgan Gibbs-White for £29 million, Taiwo Awonyi for £20 million, and Danilo for £20 million.
Steve Cooper eventually secured his side’s survival on 20th May 2023 in a 1-0 win over Arsenal. The following season, they made £50 million on Brennan Johnson but still spent over £100 million on transfers. Again, they would survive, but Steve Cooper wouldn’t, being sacked in December.
Nuno Espirito Santos would lead the club to survival despite a points deduction due to the club breaching profit and sustainability rules. Despite this, they have spent big again this summer and are currently 5th in the Premier League.
They aren’t the first team to try this…
Aston Villa and Fulham
Fulham were promoted to the Premier League through the playoffs during the 2017/18 season. Being In the Premier League for the 2018/19 season, Fulham would spend a whopping £100 million, even beating Barcelona to the signing of Jean Michel Seri to stay up.
Their efforts were futile, and Fulham swiftly returned to the Championship. They would, however, bounce back under Scott Parker’s stewardship. Unfortunately again, they would find themselves relegated yet again. Eventually, Marco Silva would take the helm, ready for an almighty season in the Championship.
Being frugal in the market, Marco Silva’s Fulham were a revelation, convincingly winning the Championship. They continued this trend, and it eventually stuck on the third attempt.
It’s concerning for a neutral fan that Fulham took three promotions and over £200 million in spending to establish themselves as an established Premier League side.
Aston Villa were promoted in the 2018/19 playoffs. For their return to the Premier League, Villa spent a lot. Over £100 million was spent on players like Wesley, Tyrone Mings, Douglas Luiz and Matt Targett. They would secure survival on the last day of the season.
Big Money Moves
Villa continued spending heavily for the following seasons, surviving comfortably. Eventually, Unai Emery took over, and Villa competed in the Champions League with a very strong squad for the Premier League.
I mention both of these clubs because of how much they have had to spend to become mainstays in the Premier League. There are a few outliers in Brentford and Brighton, but these clubs are very well run, with state-of-the-art scouting teams and strong business decisions.
Brentford and Brighton sell high and buy low, utilizing a Moneyball approach to purchasing overlooked players who turn into stars. Ivan Toney, for Brentford, is a prime example, having been tossed aside by Newcastle as a youngster.
Villa and Fulham have had to spend hundreds of millions of pounds to stay in the Premier League and rise to the top half of the division.
We are a far cry from the days of Blackburn or Leicester winning the Premier League as underdogs against the Big Six. Times have changed, and the game has sadly become very predictable. The Big Six will succeed, and the promoted teams will go down.
A Lack of Patience
Patience has been lost in modern football. Whether from the fans or the board, clubs and their managers are no longer given patience.
Football clubs change managers at a change of the wind. As of writing, the longest-serving manager in the Championship is Paul Warne, with Derby having been at the helm for over 2 years. This is, of course, after Coventry, rather controversially, parted ways with Mark Robbins.
A lack of patience given to managers to turn around poor runs of form leads to a severe lack of job security and consistency at football clubs. New managers are being brought into clubs and are not given time to mould the squad into their image.
The Red Devils
Manchester United has been a revolving door of new managers since Sir Alex Ferguson’s retirement. First up was David Moyes, recommended by Fergie himself, who only lasted 10 months in the job.
Inheriting a strong but ageing squad, Moyes would only sign Everton midfielder Fellaini and Chelsea ace Juan Mata. However, it wasn’t enough for a European finish and to keep Moyes in a job.
Next up was Louis Van Gaal, who spent much time rebuilding the squad in the transfer window. He brought in Angel Di Maria, Ander Herrera, and Luke Shaw. Man United returned to the Champions League in a respectable fourth place, giving Van Gaal another season to improve on their impressive finish.
After a disappointing season in Manchester, Di Maria was immediately sold on for the next season. Van Gaal spent big again on players like Martial, Schneiderlin, and Depay. However, this would be Van Gaal’s last season in charge after the club slumped to fifth place with fewer points.
Once again, searching for a new manager, Man United brought in Jose Mourinho to take them back to their glory days. He immediately made statement signings like Paul Pogba and Zlatan Ibrahimovic. However, Jose limps to a sixth-place finish with this side of superstars.
A False Dawn
For his second season in charge, Jose Mourinho added veteran midfielder Nemanja Matic and striker Romelu Lukaku to his side. This would be a superb season for the Red Devils, who finished second in the Premier League but far behind champions Manchester City.
Halfway through the following season, Jose Mourinho was sacked after a poor start. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer took over, and the rest is history.
My point is that this panic about returning the club to the top of the Premier League has led to countless different managers trying to install their ideologies and players into the club.
Over time, this has left the club bloated with players on large salaries who don’t fit the new manager’s systems. Clubs operating at these expenses need time to rebuild, and unwanted players on huge salaries need time to run down their contracts.
Solskjaer was afforded three seasons before the board brought back Ronaldo rather than signing Declan Rice. Ten Haag was again given three seasons, signed a whole team’s worth of players, and has now been sacked.
Ruben Amorim now walks into a club of individuals with five different managers time at the club. Will he also be given only three seasons?
Rinse and Repeat
This appears to be the same philosophy of most clubs in the English Leagues. Chelsea, since Todd Boehly took over, has been exactly the same: chopping and changing managers with a bloated squad of individuals.
Coventry has thrown away a manager who has spent over 6 years at the club and brought them to heights fans could’ve only dreamed of. They are in a time of transition after losing Gyokeres a few seasons ago and Hamer this season.
Had Robbins been allowed the time, they might’ve developed into a play-off contending side and even gotten themselves a promotion to the promised land.
Instead, they take a huge risk by giving someone else a chance to turn around their fortunes. It could blow up in their face or work out for them in the short term. However, changing managers at the first sign of trouble in the long term will leave your club wallowing in uncertainty.
PSR Transfers
Now for the most ridiculous development in recent years: PSR Transfers. Certain clubs in the Premier League have made proclaimed PSR transfers, which help them avoid breaching Profit and Sustainability Rules.
This breach caused Nottingham Forest to receive the deduction for points I mentioned earlier.
The teams involved in these dodgy deals were Aston Villa, Chelsea, Everton, and Newcastle. All four scrambled to complete big money moves before the June 30th deadline, which signalled the end of the financial year.
Aston Villa sold Omari Kellyman to Chelsea for £19 million and bought Ian Maatsen in return for £35 million. These and the rest of the transfers are significant because these players are considered homegrown.
The players being homegrown significantly impacts balancing the books for the Profit and Sustainability Rules.
Lewis Dobbin and Tim Iroegbunam were swapped between Everton and Villa for £9 million, purely for a PSR benefit.
Newcastle desperately needed to sell after their big Saudi takeover and shopping spree. They started the period by selling Yankuba Minteh to Brighton for £30 million and Elliot Anderson for £35 million, and finished it by buying Lewis Hall from Chelsea for £28 million.
Again, they are all homegrown players, which helped counter the prospect of a PSR-enforced sanction. Leicester was already on the receiving end of a transfer embargo due to PSR breaches, and these clubs did not want to risk the same thing.
Football is Broken.
Football is broken, from poor owners to PSR transfers to the great divide between the Championship and Premier League. Owners don’t believe in managers’ projects, and fans seem to give up before their team even attempts survival in the Premier League.
Hopefully, this is just a blip in football’s long life. Maybe in a few years, young managers will be given the chance to build something at their clubs. We could see the Premier League change, with new teams finding themselves there and maybe some clubs returning from the depths of the English Football Leagues.
Wrexham seems destined for the Premier League.
Will Sunderland and Birmingham City return?
Only time will tell, and I am crying out for some change in English Leagues.