The Telegraph is convinced that the team that plays against the Brumbies will be the team that plays in the first Test. The less said about that, the better. If we’ve learned anything in the last fortnight, it’s that injuries can throw a spanner in the works.
The Brumbies finished third in the Super Rugby final standings. They will be missing a few Wallabies, but they are going to provide the toughest test of the tour so far. However, on Saturday, the tourists will meet the Australia and New Zealand Invitational team, which includes six All Blacks.
Andy Farrell will want to trust his reliable Ireland team, but some of them have struggled so far. There are also better options in some positions, so he will have to mix and match, at least for the first Test.
Front Row
Tadhg Furlong is one of the best tightheads in world rugby, and he seems to have recovered from his injury issues. Zander Fagerson’s brutal calf injury means there’s no real positional depth in the squad. Finlay Bealham should be on the bench purely because Will Stuart is in the worst form of his life.
Dan Sheehan is the best hooker in world rugby. Even though he can struggle at lineout time, Farrell will want his athleticism and power around the pitch. Both the reserves, Luke Cowan-Dickie and Ronan Kelleher, have been inconsistent on the tour so far. Cowan-Dickie may get the nod for the bench spot by virtue of being the bigger body. Expect a long shift for Sheehan, though.
With two Leinster starters confirmed it would make sense to fill out the front row with their teammates. Andrew Porter is often criticised for his scrummaging technique, but he can be a nuisance at the breakdown. Turning over the ball and attacking disorganised defensive lines will be crucial against a Wallabies team that wants to play fast and go wide quickly.
Second Row
There are no prizes for guessing the tour captain will start the first Test. Maro Itoje has been the best player so far, though. He very much deserves his place in the starting line-up.
One of three locks could join Itoje in the “engine room”, though. Ollie Chessum has flashed some power already on tour, and he’s a canny line-out operator. The England lock is lining up at blindside against the Brumbies, though.
Tadhg Beirne is one of Andy Farrell’s favourite humans, to the point that he’s played him far too much over the last two years. Beirne is undoubtedly an exceptional rugby player, but his phenomenal workload seems to have taken a toll on him in recent weeks. His ability to play in the second row and the back row could see him on the bench in Suncorp.
Scott Cummings has an outside chance at starting the first Test. The Scottish lock started against the Waratahs and had an excellent first 20 minutes in a Lions team that looked very clunky. The 28-year-old has also played at 6 for Glasgow, and that versatility could appeal to Farrell.
Joe McCarthy is in a prime position to fill the space next to the captain, though. The man Mountain has put in good performances so far, and he’s another Leinster product. The familiarity between him and the front row should make the set pieces a little bit smoother.
Back Row
First things first, Jack Conan has to start at eight. He’s another of the Leinster cohort. More importantly, he’s the only specialist 8 in the squad. Some of the other back-row players can fill the role, but Farrell will want an experienced head opposite Rob Valetini.
Open-side is one of the most wide-open places in the team. If Farrell wants a seven who can also carry the ball in the 13 channel, he’ll pick Ben Earl, but if he’s looking for more power and work around the fringes, Jac Morgan or Josh van der Flier will get the nod. Van der Flier would another familiar face for Sheehan at lineout time, he would be the logical choice.
Only two players have started at 6 for the Lions so far. Tadhg Beirne, who could be the starting blind-side flanker, would solidify the line. But it isn’t easy to see past Tom Curry. The Sale Shark doesn’t hesitate to put his body on the line, and that’s the sort of thing coaches love.
Both Henry Pollock and Ben Earl could be on the bench. Pollock is the ultimate impact player, bringing energy off the bench. Naming the versatile Earl as a substitute will allow Farrell to have a 6-2 split on the bench (or even a 7-1).
Half Backs
There’s only one option to start at 9; Jamison Gibson-Park is the only scrum half in the squad with a Test-level kicking game. The Leinster 9 can also distribute the ball quickly or attack around the fringes.
The substitute scrum-half spot is more up for grabs. Ben White only arrived in Australia last week, but he is now the best game manager in the squad. Farrell will probably opt for Alex Mitchell, though. Mitchell has the speed to burn forward when defending around the breakdown, but his kicking game is inconsistent, and he doesn’t like to tackle.
Finn Russell has to start at 10. The Scottish 10 has all the experience you need from a Lions stand-off. Russell has also won his last three games against Australia!
Marcus Smith should fill the reserve 10 role; his ability to fill in at 15 in a pinch gives Farrell the option to include an X-factor player like Pollock on the bench.
Centres
Ronan O’Gara identified the importance of either playing the pair of Scottish centres on tour together or the pair of Irish centres together. Australia started the inexperienced pairing of Len Ikitau and Joseph-Aukuso Sua’ali’i against Fiji on Sunday. It would make sense for Farrell to start Bundee Aki and Garry Ringrose, at least for the first Test.
Back Three
Eliot Daly had been the best 15 on tour until he broke his arm against the Reds. Blair Kinghorn arrived in Australia late after the long Top 14 season, and Hugo Keenan has been injured and ill. Kinghorn’s ability to kick goals could see him get the nod, but he will need a whole week of rest before he’s ready to play a Test match.
With the Irish centres in the middle of the park, it will make sense to start James Lowe. The Leinster winger hasn’t shown his stuff yet, but then none of the wingers have displayed their best form.
Tommy Freeman has played well when he has his chances, and he can fill in at 13 if there’s an injury crisis. Freeman doesn’t have the kicking game that Lowe brings to the opposite wing, but he has a physical presence and can dominate aerial battles. That will help Kinghorn out in defence and add an extra dimension to the attack.
The first Test is a “belt and braces” situation. Familiarity is essential to a successful team, and with precious little time to form bonds and practice in new combinations, it’s a chance for the coaches to K.I.S.S.- Keep it simple, stupid!