It’s Ladies Day at Aintree. Frocks, fillies, and a flurry of winning favourites (punters are hoping so, bookies not so much !!) We’ve got another action-packed 7-race card on the second day of the Aintree Festival.
There are four Grade 1 contests to savour, the pick of those being the Melling Chase. The horses are also back over the Grand National fences for the Topham Chase. This is where you might have to get a pin out, close your eyes and hope for the best.
The bookies were left running for cover on day 1, with punters cheering four favourites home to victory and the biggest priced winner throughout the 7-race card was just 13/2. Will the bookies take another bashing on Ladies Day this Friday? Check out the day 2 race-by-race preview.
Mildmay Novices Chase (13:45)
Day 1 of the Aintree Festival opened with the Manifesto Novices Chase, over 2 miles 4 furlongs. The Mildmay Novices is over a longer trip of 3 miles 1 furlong to really test the stamina of the up-and-coming chasers. Like the Day 1 opener, another small field goes to post for the 1st race on day 2. Some equine stars of the past were successful in this en route to big and better things. Native River won in 2016 before landing the Cheltenham Gold Cup in 2018. Might Bite, Silviniaco Conti & Burrough Hill Lad would also triumph in the ‘Mildmay’ before writing their names in King George VI Chase history at Kempton.
Gerri Colombe cantered to victory in this event at odds of 4/6 twelve months ago. His success maintained the hot streak of short-priced winners in the event. There’s not been a double-priced horse claim victory in the ‘Mildmay’ since What’s Up Boys shot clear to land the 2001 contest at odds of 12/1. We are now on a run of ten renewals where the winner ran at the Cheltenham Festival before heading to Aintree. That counts against Broadway Boy & Heart Wood, who both missed Cheltenham and haven’t run for 90 and 68 days respectively.
Four recent winners ran in the Turners Novices Chase at the Cheltenham Festival on their previous run. Iroko is the only ‘Turners’ runner in the line-up this year. The Greenall & Guerriero 6-year-old finished 5th at Cheltenham, though never challenged. A worry for Iroko backers is that he’s only had 2 starts this season and a higher percentage of former victors of the day 2 opener had at least 4 runs before arriving at the Liverpool track. Another Cheltenham Festival contest that has proved a popular prep race has been the Brown Advisory Novices Chase. Giovinco was an eye-catching third in that race, though the Lucinda Russell trainee may be a tad too low on the official ratings, at 148. All the past 10 winners, bar one, have been rated at 153 or higher.
It’s tough to separate Inothewayurthinkin and Chianti Classico. Both produced emphatic winning performances at the Cheltenham Festival, in the Kim Muir Challenge Cup & Ultima Handicap Chase respectively. Kim Bailey has consistently campaigned Chianti Classico at around 3 miles all season long and I’m edging towards him as my 1st race selection.
Pick: Chianti Classico
Check out all the latest Mildmay Novices Chase prices
William Hill Handicap Hurdle (14:20)
The opening day’s handicap was for chasers, this second one of the 3-day Aintree Festival is for hurdlers, aged 4-years-old and upwards. Though there’s never been a 4-year-old winner and there’s none lining-up for this renewal either. Training legend, Martin Pipe, sent out the winner four times between 1990-2002. Nicky Henderson could join him on the four-winner mark if he’s victorious this year. Though it’s 7 years since the Seven Barrows handler claimed his 3rd triumph in the race with Rather Be. He only has Jango Baie running for him this time around.
Favourite backers have found it hard going over the years. Langer Dan (2022) is the only winning market leader in the last 20 editions. Dan Skelton’s Kateira currently heads the 2024 market, but this renewal is very competitive and she’s not a stand-out short-priced favourite. The majority of recent victors ran within 40 days of claiming honours at Aintree. So Inthewaterside (55 days), Springwell Bay (68 days) and Tronador (154 days) may have been off the race track for longer than we’d hope for.
I mentioned previously about Martin Pipe’s impressive record in this event and aptly the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival has proved to be a good prep race, with three recent winners of this William Hill Handicap Hurdle having run in it. Ocastle Des Mottes (5th), What’s Up Darling (6th) and Sonigino (pulled up) have all followed that route this year. Will Cheltenham Festival runners claim a third successive victory in the race? Slightly off-putting for What’s Up Darling supporters is that he’s only had one career hurdles victory (the same goes for Might I). At least 2 previous hurdles successes seem to be one of the key recent attributes of those that have won.
You have to go back to 2012 and Attaglance for the last winning horse to carry over 11-4 in weight. Only two others have managed that feat since the turn of the millennium. As a result Icare Allen (11-11), Sonigino (11-10) and Jango Baie (11-8) may struggle. It could also be another reason to avoid Springwell Bay (12-0) and Might I (11-9).
Pick: Ocastle Des Mottes (e/w option: Champagne Twist)
Check out all the latest William Hill Handicap Hurdle prices
Top Novices Hurdle (14:55)
The hurdling talent shifts up a gear, with the second Grade 1 contest of day 2. Yet another Aintree Festival event that Nicky Henderson has farmed in recent times. 6 winners since 2010, five of those coming in the space of 7 years between 2010-2016. The last of his Super-6 was Jonbon in 2022. Saddle legends, Tony McCoy and Richard Johnson both rode 5 winners apiece. Amazingly there was a 21-year gap between Richard Johnson’s first in 1997 and his last win in 2018.
The field usually includes horses which ran previously in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. The last horse to achieve victories in both events was Browne’s Gazette in 1984. The double won’t be repeated this year, with 2024 Supreme Novices’ winner, Slade Steel not at Aintree. However, the 2nd, 3rd and 5th that day (Mystical Power, Firefox & Mistergif) all line up. Mystical Power and Firefox both finished positively at Cheltenham that day, and unsurprisingly they are the top of the market. Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle winner, Golden Ace, is also in the field. All those horses obviously arrive at Aintree race track fit and raring to go. However, Dysart Enos and Lookaway haven’t been in action since (the end of) January & (beginning of) February.
It’s another race where it’s hard to separate two of the leading fancies, Mystical Power and Firefox. But we can’t sit on the fence, and I’m siding with Firefox. Hopefully he’s given a prominent ride, as he’s performed well previously when up with the leaders. Mystical Power’s jumping isn’t always the most fluent, which could be a concern.
Pick: Firefox
Check out all the latest Top Novices Hurdle prices
Melling Chase (15:30)
Paul Nicholls claimed his fourth Melling Chase success last year with Pic D’Orhy, denying Fakir D’oudairies a record-breaking 3rd victory in the 2 mile 4 furlong contest in the process. Fakir D’oudairies, the 2021 & 2022 winner, is just one of a handful of horses, including Voy Por Ustedes, Moscow Flyer & Viking Flagship, who have won it back-to-back. Pic D’Orhy bucked the trend when winning last year. He finished second in the Ascot Chase in February, then had a 2-month lay-off before arriving at Aintree. He has followed the same route again this year. Many of the previous Melling Chase winners had shorter breaks before heading to Liverpool.
Jonbon is looking to claim a third straight victory at the Aintree Festival, following successes in the Top Novices’ Hurdle (2022) & Maghull Novices’ Chase (2023). He is another Nicky Henderson star who pulled out of a scheduled run at this year’s Cheltenham Festival and there will be question marks over him. Prior to both his 2022 & 2023 Aintree Festival victories he had produced impressive performances at the Cheltenham Festival. However, his last run before heading to Aintree this time came way back at the end of January in the Clarence House Chase.
Moscow Flyer claimed his second win in the race in 2005, at the age of 10 and a horse older than 9 hasn’t won the race since then. Almost half the 7-runner field for this year’s renewal are 10-year-olds (Envoi Allen, Conflated & Easy Game) and it’s hard to get over enthusiastic about any of their chances. The first three home in the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival (Protektorat, Envoi Allen & Conflated) all clash again. Protektorat was the emphatic winner that day and like Jonbon is attempting to land a third career victory at Aintree (though one of those wins was at the December meeting)
Pick: Pic D’Orhy
Check out all the latest Melling Chase prices
Topham Chase (16:05)
The amateur jockeys got their opportunity to shine over the Grand National fences on the opening day in the ‘Foxhunters’. Now it’s the turn of the professional saddle stars to get their first go over those famous fences at this year’s Aintree Festival. A good practice run, albeit a shortened one, prior to Saturday’s main event.
Ultragold won the race back-to-back for Colin Tizzard in 2017 & 2018, but it would be Always Waining’s efforts that were most memorable. After finishing 4th in 2009, Peter Bowen’s trainee would rack up three wins in the race (2010-2012). Nicky Henderson would repeat Peter Bowen’s training feat between 2013-2015, though with three different horses: Triolo D’Alene, Ma Filleule & Rajdhani Express.
It’s the biggest field of day 2 and we need to start knocking off some of the runners quickly. Only three winners have carried more than 11-1 since 2001. The last of those being Rajdhani Express in 2015. Several of those who are prominent in the market look to have hefty amounts in the saddle. Shakem Up’arry (11-8), James Du Berlais (11-10), Fantastic Lady (11-3) and Classic Getaway (12-0). Last year’s winner, Bill Baxter, returns to defend his crown, and is the current favourite. He’s only up 3lbs compared to this time twelve months ago. Warren Greatrex will be hoping being back at Aintree brings out the best in the grey, as he hasn’t finished better than 3rd since his 2023 Topham win. However, there hasn’t been a winning favourite/joint fav since Gwanako in 2008, so I’ll be looking for value elsewhere.
Bill Baxter bucked a trend when claiming the honours last year. He became the first winner since Clan Royal in 2003 to win the Topham following straight on from another victory elsewhere. I’m going to presume that was a one-off and will be avoiding those who were winners last time out. Those include some of more fancied runners, such as Your Darling, Arizona Cardinal and Aime Desjy. Bill Baxter may have bucked one trend, but he did conform to the recent prep race one. A high proportion of recent Topham winners ran within 40 days of running at Aintree. So Young Darling’s and Francky Du Berlais’s long track lay-offs (140 days & 63 days) are a concern.
I like Paul Nicholls’ Kandoo Kid. In-form all season and still improving. He’s bypassed the Cheltenham Festival like some of the recent winners of the Topham. Celebre D’Allen also gets the thumbs up. He had three impressive back-to-back runs at Aintree between April and December last year and could be worth an each-way shot at bigger odds.
Pick: Kandoo Kid (E/W option: Celebre D’Allen)
Check out all the latest Topham Chase prices
Sefton Novices Hurdle (16:40)
The Sefton Novices is the fourth and final Grade 1 contest on day 2. It’s the longest hurdles event of the Aintree Festival to date, though we’ve got the William Hill Handicap Hurdle and Liverpool Hurdle to come on Saturday, both over 3 miles too. 6-year-olds have come out on top of late, winning 8 of the previous 10 editions, though two thirds of the 2024 line-up are aged six. Kyntara at 8, can probably be discounted, there’s been no winner older than 7 since Unsinkable Boxer in 1998.
The Brits have dominated the event, with only one Irish success ever and that came almost 20 years ago (Asian Maze, 2005). The Emerald Isle drought will be of concern for the backers of the Willie Mullins’ pair, Readin Tommy Wrong and Dancing City. Both those ran in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, an event where six Sefton winners since 2006 have raced in prior to heading to Aintree.
Readin Tommy Wrong was favourite that day at Cheltenham, but flopped, being pulled up before the last after weakening early. It will take a brave punter to back him again at short odds. Dancing City came third but appeared to be running out of steam before hitting the last. Ben Pauling’s The Jukebox Man finished second, only a head behind the winner. He looked to be a victim of the Cheltenham hill that day, as he ran about all over the place when in front and he is likely to find this easier.
Nicky Henderson, who won the Sefton three times between 2014-2019, sends out Shanagh Bob. The unbeaten 6-year-old is packed with potential, but like another couple of horses currently in the top-5 of the betting, Croke Park & Cherie D’Am, has been off the track for a lengthy period, so there are fitness doubts.
Pick: The Jukebox Man
Check out all the latest Sefton Novices Hurdle prices
Alder Hey Handicap Hurdle (17:15)
The non-professional jockeys get the chance to shine before the curtain falls on the second day of action at the Aintree Festival. This conditional jockeys’ & amateur riders’ hurdle contest is one of the newest events at the festival, which had its augural edition in 2009. The last two winners ran in the Imperial Cup at Sandown, prior to grabbing glory at the Aintree Festival (one pulled up, the other finished third).
It’s no surprise therefore, that this year’s Imperial Cup winner, My Dante, is one of the bookie’s favourites to land the Aintree Festival Day 2 finale. Olly Murphy’s 8-year-old finished 8th in the contest twelve months ago but ran into trouble and should have finished closer. A worry for My Dante and others near the head of the market, is that you have to go back to 2013 for the last time a horse in the top-3 of the betting was victorious.
Afadil’s 5th place finish in the County Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival was an eye-catching piece of work in a high-class event and the Paul Nicholls’ 5-year-old could still be on a handy mark. A slight worry is that he’s carrying 11-9 and there’s not been a winner over 11-2 since 2014. I’m edging more towards Zeeband. Paul John Gilligan’s 7-year-old is finally getting his act together over hurdles and improving race-by-race, since shifting from the flat to jumps last year.
E/W Picks: Zeeband (alternative: Afadil)
Check out all the latest Alder Hey Handicap Hurdle prices
Aintree Festival TV Coverage
Five races (14:20-16:40) are shown live on ITV, with every race at the Aintree Festival shown live on Racing TV. Keep up with today’s horse racing results via Racing Post.
Good luck All!!! Let us know your Day 2/Aintree Festival/Grand National selections. Click on ‘Comments’ under the main article title at the top of this piece)
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