A 3-way battle for the greatest achievement in the world of motorsport will be on show this coming weekend in Abu Dhabi at the Yas Marina Circuit. Current World Champion, Max Verstappen, will go head-to-head with the McLaren duo of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri in what can only be described as a race for the ages.
When Oscar Piastri last won a race, Max Verstappen was over 100 points behind the McLaren pair; in the eight races since, Verstappen has closed up enough to still be in with a chance of winning his fifth consecutive World Championship as we enter the final weekend of the F1 calendar.
Currently, Lando Norris leads the WDC, sitting pretty on 408 points, whilst Verstappen and Piastri sit on 396 and 392 respectively. This 12-point buffer that Norris has over Verstappen means he will be going into the Abu Dhabi GP as the favourite to win his first Drivers’ Championship.
Norris could have sealed the WDC with a win in Qatar, but was at a disadvantage early in the race with himself and Piastri being the only two drivers on the grid, aside from Esteban Ocon, to not pit under safety car conditions following a crash between Nico Hulkenberg and Pierre Gasly on lap seven.
This meant that whilst the rest of the grid had fresher tyres and only one pitstop left, the McLaren duo had older tyres and still had to make an extra stop. In the end, Piastri finished 2nd whilst Lando Norris could only finish 4th. A late Kimi Anonelli mistake could end up being the deciding factor in the WDC as it allowed Norris to pass for 4th place and maintain a 12-point gap over Verstappen rather than a 10-point gap.
The Potential Outcomes…
How can Norris seal his first WDC?
- If Norris finishes on the podium, he wins the World Drivers’ Championship regardless of Verstappen and Piastri’s finishing positions.
- If Norris finishes fourth or fifth and Verstappen does not win the race, Norris will be crowned champion.
- If Norris finishes sixth or seventh, he will be crowned World Champion if neither Verstappen nor Piastri wins the race. In this case, Norris would be tied on points with Verstappen but would win due to having more second-place finishes.
- If Norris finishes eighth, he will be crowned WC as long as Verstappen finishes third or lower and Piastri does not win the race.
- If Norris finishes ninth, tenth, or outside of the top ten, he will win the championship as long as Verstappen finishes fourth or lower and Piastri finishes third or lower.
How can Piastri win his first WDC?
For Oscar Piastri, the task is much more difficult but also much simpler. If the Aussie doesn’t manage to finish in the top two, he cannot win the WDC regardless of how Lando Norris finishes, as he remains 16 points behind his teammate.
- If Piastri wins in Abu Dhabi, he needs Norris to finish sixth or lower and Verstappen to finish second or lower.
- If Piastri finishes second, he needs Norris to finish ninth or lower and Verstappen to finish fourth or lower.
- In any other case, Piastri will not win the WDC.
How could Verstappen secure his fifth consecutive WDC?
Verstappen has shown his incredible abilities behind the wheel of a difficult Red Bull this season and demonstrated why he has won the World Drivers’ Championship for the last four years. Should he manage to secure his fifth WDC, he will match Michael Schumacher’s record of winning five consecutive Drivers’ Championships. So how can the Dutchman make history?
- Should Verstappen win at Yas Marina, he would need Norris to finish fourth or lower to take the title.
- If Verstappen finishes second, he would need Norris to finish eighth or lower to win.
- If Verstappen finishes third, he needs Norris to finish ninth or lower.
- If Verstappen does not finish on the podium, he cannot win the WDC.
It’s bound to be an emphatic, generational race at the Yas Marina Circuit this weekend, and anything could happen. Of course, Norris is the favourite to win the title, but is a Verstappen win and a Norris fourth or lower that unlikely?
What if Verstappen and Norris take each other out in the first turn and Piastri sails away and takes home the Drivers’ Championship? Anything can happen, and that’s the beauty of Formula One. Make sure to grab your popcorn, your Dubai chocolate if you want and get ready for a blockbuster race to finish a box-office season. 7th December, 1 pm BST, be there!