The wheat has been separated from the chaff, and the wait is almost over. At 4pm this Saturday, the tape will fling up for the start of the 2024 Grand National. It’s been another absorbing Aintree Festival so far, but the anticipation now steps up a gear as the minutes tick by until the world’s greatest steeplechase gets underway.
Hopes are currently high for punters, jockeys, trainers, and owners a-like, and everyone thinks they know who’s going to win. Here we look over today’s racecards, all the key stats and trends, which will hopefully aid your Grand National selection. Not that you need any help of course !!
Embed from Getty ImagesComing Of Age at Aintree
Noble Yeats and Sam Waley-Cohen pulled off a Grand National shock when landing the 2022 edition, as a 7-year-old, at odds of 50/1. In doing so he became the youngest winner of the Aintree flagship event since Bogskar in 1940. The Emmet Mullins trainee showed it was no fluke though, when returning last year to finish a creditable 4th.
During a period of 15 years after the turn of this millennium, ten Grand National winners were aged 10 or older. We even had a 12-year-old in the shape of Amberleigh House winning for Grand National legend, Ginger McCain, in 2004. However, there definitely seems to have been a shift in the age trend more recently. 11-year-old Pineau De Re stormed to a 5-length victory in 2014. But since then, the young’uns have dominated, with all 8 subsequent winners being aged 9 or less.
Many Clouds won at the age of 8 in 2015 and at the time, was only the 4th winner aged 8 since Red Rum’s first triumph in 1973. The others being, Corbiere in 1983, Party Politics in 1992 & Bindaree in 2002. We’ve had another three 8-year-olds win since Many Clouds’ success and on top of that, Noble Yeats’ jaw-dropping victory at the tender age of 7. The young ones really rubbed it in last year too with the first four home all aged under 10.
Festival Investing Proving Beneficial
Some would imagine that the exertions of running at the Cheltenham Festival in March would prove too much for those competing over the marathon trip of the Grand National less than a month later at Aintree. However, 6 of the last 9 Grand National winners would have their final pre-Aintree prep run at the Cheltenham Festival. Three of those six won at the Cheltenham Festival (Coragh Rambler in 2023 and Tiger Roll before both his successes in 2018 & 2019). One of the six was placed at Cheltenham (Pineau De Re in 2014) and two were unplaced (Noble Yeats in 2022 & Many Clouds in 2015).
A trend that coincides with the Cheltenham Festival one, is looking at how many days Grand National winners were last seen in action prior to them winning at Aintree. With 9 of the previous 12 National heroes winning after having raced 42 days before or less, it shows that recent track fitness is a key component of those landing the spoils at the legendary equine location in Liverpool. Pineau De Re’s famous victory actually came after just 23 days of him running at Cheltenham.
Embed from Getty ImagesCarrying A Heavy Burden
Weight-carrying feats have been few and far between in recent runnings of the Grand National. Only two winning horses have carried over 11st 5lbs in the past 40+ years. Many Clouds (11st 9lbs in 2015) and Neptune Collonges (11st 6lbs in 2012). In addition, there have been only five winners in the past 18 years, who have carried over 11 stone. If we look even more closely at the most recent Grand National editions, of horses finishing in the top-4 in the last 5 years, only 25% of them carried over 11 stone. As well as carrying too much weight in the saddle, those runners too high in the ratings haven’t fared too well over the recent years. Only two winners in the past ten Grand National renewals have been ‘officially’ rated over 150 (Tiger Roll in 2019 & Many Clouds in 2015).
Ones For the Grand National Shortlist
Kitty’s Light
Last April, Kitty’s Light, clinched the Scottish National crown for Christian Williams. It made up for his second place in the 2022 renewal at Ayr, where he had been hampered by a faller when looking to come with a challenge. Prior to his 2023 Scottish National success, the then 7-year-old, had also bagged a win at 4 miles plus when claiming the Eider Chase at Newcastle. The most famous horse to win both the Scottish & Aintree Nationals is of course Red Rum.
Limerick Lace
As well as last year’s runner-up, Vanillier, Gavin Cromwell also sends out Limerick Lace, the winner of the Mares’ Chase on the final day of the Cheltenham Festival. She’s had an impressive season to date, including a second in the 3 mile Troytown Chase at Navan (the furthest she’s ever raced). Limerick Lace may be inexperienced, but she has bags of potential and is aiming to become the first mare to win since Nickel Coin in 1951.
Adamantly Chosen (e/w)
Willie Mullins tasted his first Grand National success in 2005 and he’s been waiting for his second winner ever since. The Irish training legend is definitely giving it a good crack/craic this year. He sends out 8 runners, almost 25% of the field. While Adamantly Chosen isn’t one of his more fancied runners, he comes to Aintree in good form. He had an impressive outing over his longest trip to date at Down Royal just 27 days ago. He could be an each-way shout at big odds.
The Goffer (e/w)
Another one at big odds that could be worth an each-way squeak is Gordon Elliott’s The Goffer. Like Willie Mullins, the Cullentra House handler also sends out 8 in this year’s Grand National. The Goffer had a good blow-out in his Grand National prep race. He finished 5th behind Chianti Classico in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. He had some good performances in big-field events last season too and could be there or thereabouts again.
Aintree Festival TV Coverage
Five races from day 3 of the Aintree Festival (13:20-16:00) will be screened live on ITV Racing. All 7 races are shown live on Racing TV. Keep up with today’s horse racing results via the Racing Post.
Keep your eyes peeled for the latest Grand National results 2024
Good luck, All!!! Let us know your Aintree Festival Day 3/Grand National selections. Click on ‘Comments’ under the main article title at the top of this piece)
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Image Credit: Deposit Photos
My horse fell at the first fence!