Southampton will have to achieve what only four teams in the history of the Premier League have managed to do if they are to stay up this season. Sunday’s 5-0 thrashing at home to Spurs spelt the end for Russell Martin as Saints manager after collecting just five points all season.
The Saints are already nine points from safety and four points adrift of second-bottom Wolverhampton Wanderers, ensuring they will be bottom of the league on Christmas Day. This fate usually precedes relegation in May.
Only four times has the bottom team at Christmas stayed up
The prospects for the South Coast club this season seem gloomy, but it isn’t a foregone conclusion that they will be playing Championship football next season just because they are bottom at Christmas.
In the 32 previous seasons of the Premier League, the team that spent Christmas Day at the bottom of the table has survived four times.
West Bromwich Albion survived in 2004/05 despite being bottom at Christmas. The Baggies were bottom on the final day and at half-time in the final round of matches, but two second-half goals to defeat Portsmouth at The Hawthorns, coupled with defeats for Southampton and Norwich, and Crystal Palace only managing a draw at Charlton, enabled them to survive.
On Christmas Day 2022, Wolves were at the bottom of the league. However, after the World Cup break, they experienced an impressive comeback, ultimately finishing in 13th place, marking the highest position achieved by a team that faced the curse.
The two most extraordinary reversals came from Sunderland in 2013/14 and Leicester City the following year.
Despite reaching the League Cup Final, Sunderland managed only one point from their first eight games and only ten by Christmas.
The Black Cats had won three and drawn one in mid-January and early February, ending with a 3-0 win over rivals Newcastle, but they then lost seven of their next eight games.
With fixtures away at Manchester City, Chelsea and Manchester United still to play, manager Gus Poyet said it would be a “miracle” if they managed to stay up.
However, following a 2-2 draw against City, victories at Stamford Bridge and Old Trafford, and a 4-0 thrashing of Cardiff in between, a 2-0 win against West Brom enabled them to survive in 14th.
After a bright start, including a famous 5-3 comeback win against Manchester United, Leicester went on a 13-match winless run, which saw them sink to the bottom of the table at Christmas.
By April, the club had managed only four victories from their first 29 games and had just 19 points, all eight teams that had previously had fewer than 20 points after 29 games had finished bottom.
Just four games later, Leicester were outside the relegation zone after late victories against West Ham and West Brom, a comfortable 2-0 win against Swansea, and a 1-0 victory over Burnley in a classic six-pointer, with Jamie Vardy scoring the only goal of the game.
After a 3-1 defeat to Champions-Elect Chelsea, Leicester bounced back with home wins over Newcastle and Southampton before a goalless draw at Sunderland enabled them to survive.
This will give Saints fans hope, but as the table below shows, you are likely to go down if you are at the bottom at Christmas.
| NoSeason | Team | Points at Christmas (Win-Draw-Loss) | Final Points (Win-Draw-Loss) | Final Position | Survived? |
| 1992/93 | Nottingham Forest | 15 (3W-6D-11L | 40 (W10-D10-L22) | 22nd | No |
| 1993/94 | Swindon Town | 14 (W2-D8-L11) | 30 (W5-D15-L22) | 22nd | No |
| 1994/95 | Ipswich Town | 12 (W3-D3-L13) | 27 (W7-D6-L29) | 22nd | No |
| 1995/96 | Bolton Wanderers | 10 (W2-D4-L13) | 29 (W8-D5-L25) | 20th | No |
| 1996/97 | Nottingham Forest | 13 (W2-D7-L9) | 34 (W6-D16-L16) | 20th | No |
| 1997/98 | Barnsley | 14 (W4-D2-L13) | 35 (W10-D5-L23) | 19th | No |
| 1998/99 | Nottingham Forest | 13 (W2-D7-L11) | 30 (W7-D9-L22) | 20th | No |
| 1999/2000 | Sheffield Wednesday | 6 (W1-D3-L13) | 31 (W8-D7-L23) | 19th | No |
| 2000/01 | Bradford City | 12 (W2-D6-L11) | 20th | 26 (W5-D11-L22) | No |
| 2001/02 | Ipswich Town | 12 (W2-D6-L10) | 18th | 36 (W9-D9-L20) | No |
| 2002/03 | West Ham United | 14 (W3-D5-L11) | 18th | 42 (W10-D12-L16) | No |
| 2003/04 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 11 (W2-D5-L9) | 20th | 33 (W7-D12-L19) | No |
| 2004/05 | West Bromwich Albion | 10 (W1-D7-L10) | 17th | 34 (W6-D16-L16) | Yes |
| 2005/06 | Sunderland | 5 (W1-D2-L14) | 20th | 15 (W3-D6-L29) | No |
| 2006/07 | Watford | 11 (W1-D8-L9) | 20th | 28 (W5-D13-L20) | No |
| 2007/08 | Derby County | 7 (W1-D4-L13) | 20th | 11 (W1-D8-L29) | No |
| 2008/09 | West Bromwich Albion | 18 (W5-D3-L12) | 20th | 32 (W8-D8-L22) | No |
| 2009/10 | Portsmouth | 14 (W4-D2-L12) | 20th | 19* (W7-D7-L24) | No |
| 2010/11 | West Ham United | 13 (W2-D7-L9) | 20th | 33 (W7-D12-L19) | No |
| 2011/12 | Blackburn Rovers | 10 (W2-D4-L11) | 19th | 31 (W8-D7-L23) | No |
| 2012/13 | Reading | 9 (W1-D6-L11) | 19th | 28 (W6-D10-L22) | No |
| 2013/14 | Sunderland | 10 (W2-D4-L11) | 14th | 38 (W10-D8-L20) | Yes |
| 2014/15 | Leicester City | 10 (W2-D4-L11) | 14th | 41 (W11-D8-L19) | Yes |
| 2015/16 | Aston Villa | 7 (W1-D4-L12) | 20th | 17 (W3-D8-L27) | No |
| 2016/17 | Hull City | 12 (W3-D3-L11) | 18th | 34 (W9-D7-L22) | No |
| 2017/18 | Swansea City | 13 (W3-D4-L12) | 18th | 33 (W8-D9-L21) | No |
| 2018/19 | Fulham | 10 (W2-D4-L12) | 19th | 26 (W7-D5-L26) | No |
| 2019/20 | Watford | 12 (W2-D6-L10) | 19th | 34 (W8-D10-L20) | No |
| 2020/21 | Sheffield United | 2 (W0-D2-L12) | 20th | 23 (W7-D2-L29) | No |
| 2021/22 | Norwich City | 10 (W2-D4-L11) | 20th | 22 (W5-D7-L26) | No |
| 2022/23 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 10 (W2-D4-L9) | 13th | 41 (W11-D8-L19) | Yes |
| 2023/24 | Sheffield United | 9 (W2-D3-L13) | 20th | 16 (W3-D7-L28) | No |
The record isn’t the best for newly promoted sides, either of which Southampton are this season. Only West Brom in 2004/05 and Leicester in 2014/15 survived after being bottom of the table at Christmas as newly promoted sides.
Is there hope for Southampton?
On the face of it, not much, as no team has survived with as few as five points from 16 games as Southampton currently has, but the form of the teams above them might give a glimmer of hope.
Wolves, who also sacked their manager, Gary O’Neil, on Sunday, have a shocking defensive record, conceding 40 goals this term.
Ipswich’s win over Wolves on Saturday was only their second of the season. They have yet to win a home game, which will keep the belief at St Mary’s that they can be reeled in.
Leicester City also changed managers this season, with Ruud Van Nistlerooy replacing Steve Cooper at the end of November. The Foxes are nine points ahead of Southampton, but they were thrashed 4-0 at Newcastle on Saturday.
If the Saints are to survive, it is almost certain that these three will have to overtake to survive.