Real Madrid and Barcelona will meet in the Spanish Super Cup final on Sunday for the fourth consecutive time in the final and the fifth consecutive time in the competition since the new format was adopted in 2020.
Barcelona have won two of the three finals since their first meeting in 2023.
Both clubs will be pushing to make a statement, with Real Madrid looking to redeem themselves after their colossal performances against Barcelona last season, when they lost all four matches to their rivals.
Barcelona would want to reassert control against Real Madrid, especially after losing their previous outing at the Bernabeu in a 2-1 deficit. A trophy here would strengthen their claim as Spain’s top team right now.
Head-to-Head
Real Madrid have won only one of the last five games against Barcelona in all competitions, dating back to last season, and have conceded a total of 17 goals in that period.
Barcelona come into this game with 9 straight wins across all competitions and 5 straight clean sheets in their last 5 games, including the 5:0 battering of Athletic Club that sent them through to the final. With Lamine Yamal on the bench, Fermin Lopez, Raphinha and Bardghji all stepped up, each putting up three goal contributions.
On the other hand, their rivals Real Madrid have won their last five games in all competitions, including defeating city rivals Atletico Madrid in a gruelling match thanks to a Valverde free kick from 40 yards out and also setting up Rodrygo for his second, which made it his 6th goal involvement in his last six games.
However, defensively, both teams have struggled at times this season. Real Madrid have appeared to have been the shakier side in recent times, conceding five goals in their last games in all competitions compared to Barcelona’s five consecutive clean sheets in their last five games.
Barcelona are the top scorers in the league, having scored 53 goals in 19 games and maintaining a 100% goal-scoring record in all league games this season, while creating an xG of 2.22 and averaging 3.84 goals per game.
Real Madrid are the second-highest scorers in the league, with 41 goals in 19 league games, whilst creating an xG of 2.21 and averaging 3.05 goals per game.
Injured/Suspended players
Barcelona: Gavi is out injured with an arthroscopy, and his potential return date is 23/02/2026. Andreas Christensen is also out due to a ligament tear, and his potential return date is 30/04/2026. Barcelona skipper Marc-Andre ter Stegen is also out and will return on 15/01/2026. Ronald Araujo is also out for this fixture.
Real Madrid: Eder Militao is out with a muscle injury and could return on 01/04/2026. Trent Alexander-Arnold is also out due to a muscle tear and will potentially return on 02/02/2026. Brahim Diaz will also be out due to international duty at the 2025 AFCON in Morocco. Lastly, Kylian Mbappe, Rodrygo, Antonio Rudiger, Raul Asensio and Dean Huijsen are all doubts for the game against Barcelona. Vinicius Junior and Tchouameni are also at risk of suspension due to accumulating four yellow cards each.
Could Barça’s high line be a problem for Mbappé?
Barcelona have once again found consistency with their high defensive line. Players like Raphinha contribute significantly to the effectiveness of their high defensive line through their high press. Joan Garcia, who conceded one goal in his last five games, especially after a monstrous performance against his former club Espanyol.
The key to breaking down Barcelona’s high defensive line is to exploit the defence with timed passes from midfielders and attackers, and to properly time forward runs, especially in wide areas, to exploit the high line, which also relies heavily on the creativity and technical ability of the midfielders.
Firstly, does the Madrid midfield have the technique and creativity to keep the ball in line? And can Mbappe also time his runs when anticipating such passes?
Mbappe has been found offside a total of fourteen times against Barcelona in 3 La Liga games thus far. Here is an image by Statmuse.
Source: Statmuse
Barcelona’s dominant attack vs Madrid’s lacklustre defence:
One of the problems for this Madrid side is their lacklustre defence for quite some time now, and it doesn’t help matters that Militao is out and Dean Huijsen is also a doubt for the game.
There’s Barcelona’s elite attack, with Yamal being third in big chances created across Europe’s top five leagues, with thirteen. Yamal has nine assists in all competitions and has the most successful take-ons in Europe’s top five leagues with 77.
There’s Raphinha on the left-hand side, who is a pressing monster for Flick and integral to Barca’s attack. Raphinha has contributed 12 goal involvements in just 10 league starts this season. Raphinha also made 60 goal contributions in 57 goals for the Culers last season.
There is also Fermin Lopez, who has been integral for Barcelona this season as an attacking midfielder. With his pressing, IQ and good eye for goal, he is one of the best in his position. Fermin already has 16 goal contributions in all competitions this season.
It is also quite impressive that Barcelona have two players among the top five Ballon d’Or finishers.
Should Vinicius start or be benched?
Another concerning factor for Real Madrid fans is Vinicius Junior. Vinicius has produced mediocre performances since late 2024.
After Benzema left Madrid in 2023, there was originally talk that Vini was the team’s star. He had his Ballon d’Or season, scoring in the UCL final against Dortmund and scoring twenty-four goals and eleven assists across all competitions despite missing two months due to an injury.
Bellingham also had that illustrious debut season in Madrid, where he put up 36 goal involvements in 42 games. He helped England to the Euros finals, where they lost to Spain and the eventual Ballon d’Or winner, Rodri.
After the Ballon d’Or incident, Vini dropped that 10x statement, Mbappe’s Real Madrid career blossomed, and he started breaking records.
Mbappe tied Cristiano’s Madrid record for having the most goals in a calendar year. Vinicius slowly started to become a shadow of himself.
Vini has clashed with opposition players and coaches. Koke took a dig at him in September 2025, and Simeone most recently claimed that the president would kick him out of the club.
Vinicius’s Real Madrid shirt was taken down from his Instagram account after he was booed by his own supporters during multiple games. There were rumours that he was considering leaving, and contract negotiations between Vini’s management and Real Madrid had stalled.
Vinicius has been scoreless for 19 games across all competitions for Real Madrid, an all-time low for the Brazilian.
Below are his league numbers for Real Madrid in recent seasons.
source: Statmuse
Predictions
I would predict a high-scoring game given how Madrid’s and Barcelona’s defences are, especially if Kylian Mbappe can get on the pitch.
Araujo and Christensen are both out for this match due to the defensive circumstances of both sides, including Madrid’s and Barcelona’s injuries.
It will also be a close game; however, I do see Barcelona coming out on top in this fixture on Sunday in Jeddah.