We are coming into February and every International Rugby fan knows it’s the Six Nations time of year. For me, the Six Nations is the best Rugby Union competition around. It’s dark, cold and miserable outside in the northern hemisphere when the Six Nations rolls around.
We are usually in the middle of a bad winter and it isn’t pretty for anybody, but somehow this competition warms you up—competitive international rugby at its finest.
This Six Nations 2024 tournament preview and best bets will hopefully follow the 2023 preview. We landed everything on our 2023 Six Nations preview and had a 100% strike rate with 3 bets. Ireland did the job for us last year with Ireland tipped to win the Six Nations title, the Triple Crown and the Grand Slam. They obliged with ease on 11/8, 11/8 and 3/1 for huge profits.
Six Nations 2024
Embed from Getty ImagesThis year there is a change of tactic. It was Ireland last year but this year it will be France as they look like the team to beat. If you read last year’s preview it was all about home advantage. Ireland had it last year and France will have it this year. Home advantage is crucial in the Six Nations. This year may be slightly different. Let me explain.
The fortress that is the Stade de France is not available to France this year due to the upgrades required to the stadium in preparation for the Paris 2024 Olympic Games.
So, France is going on a little jolly boys’ outing around France. They have 3 home matches, they play Ireland in the opener in Marseille in front of nearly 70,000 people. They host England in Lyon in front of 60,000 and then they face Italy in front of 50,000 in Lille.
It is a good fixture list. The strongest teams in the tournament must travel to France and then they go away to Wales and Scotland, which aren’t easy but you think France can deal with them.
Honestly, I could see France doing the Grand Slam. There may be one problem though. Antoine Dupont.
Embed from Getty ImagesIf you haven’t heard of Antoine Dupont. You are either living under a rock or you just don’t watch Rugby. He is the golden boy of French rugby and the best player in the world bar none. He honestly is just phenomenal in every single way. Watching him play Rugby is like watching Federer play tennis, Messi play football or Kohli play cricket.
He is a once-in-a-generation talent but this year he is skipping the Six Nations……. Yes, you heard that correctly. He is skipping it because France has a home Olympics in 2024. He has decided he quite fancies a Gold Medal and he will play for France in the Rugby Sevens. Which could change the whole dynamics of Rugby Sevens but that is another story for another day.
Luckily for France though, they are stacked with talent. He will be missed, there is no doubt about that. They will miss him but they have enough stars to step up in his place. Thomas Ramos, Gregory Allgritt and Damian Penuad are back fit, which is a huge boost for France.
Embed from Getty ImagesMake no mistake this is France’s golden generation and they have to win and win now, they know this and I feel this will be another Six Nations in the cabinet. France’s biggest challenger will be Ireland. Ireland is a fantastic team but they will be weaker this year and that is because Johnny Sexton has retired. Sexton was not only an unbelievable kicker but his on-the-field decisions were even better.
Sexton knew how to read the game within a split second and was a master at it. His time management and his in-game knowledge just cannot be replaced. Ireland has no way of filling the massive gap that will be left by Sexton retiring and they will suffer because of this.
Triple Crown
So, the next question is…. Will Ireland win the Triple Crown?
The Triple Crown is fought between Wales, Scotland, England and Ireland (the home nations). A team has to beat all 3 of the other home nations to collect the Triple Crown. Ireland’s fixtures that they would need to win for this to happen are Wales at home, England away and Scotland at home.
Embed from Getty ImagesThey should dismantle Wales and Scotland at the Aviva Stadium. So, the next question is do they beat England at Twickenham I just can’t see Ireland getting beat by England. Ireland is a class above any of the current home nations by a comfortable margin and I don’t see that changing in this tournament.
Specials
The “Specials” market at the Six Nations is loaded with great bets and this year looks no different. There is one that sticks out to me and that is Ireland to finish second. This is where you need to be clever and extract the best value. France will win this and Ireland will be a close second.
In the without France market Ireland is 8/15, poor value really and unbackable at the prices. Ireland to finish second is 17/10. Good value but the bet that sticks out is the France / Ireland straight forecast for 1st and 2nd at 11/4. That looks like terrific value for money.
The first loss market looks very appealing this year. England looks like the most value for money here if you can predict their first loss correctly. They open against Italy in Rome and you can take the 13/2 on Italy inflicting their first defeat, but anyone in their right mind avoids this.
Embed from Getty ImagesNext up is Wales at Twickenham then a trip to Murrayfield to face Scotland. This is where it gets interesting, you’d expect England to take care of Wales at Twickenham. Wales aren’t the force they used to be but like we witnessed at the World Cup, they can still get important wins and put in performances when they need to.
I would side with England beating Wales at Twickenham. Wales has won once at Twickenham since 2008 in the Six Nations and that was in 2012 and I would expect the usual outcome of an England win. So, I would avoid the 7/2 on offer for Wales being their first loss.
Scotland at Murrayfield is a different proposition altogether. They had a disappointing World Cup but I have no doubts Scotland can hold their own and they do in the Six Nations regularly. Especially at home.
Embed from Getty ImagesWhen you go to Murrayfield in February or March the first thing you look for is the weather. Most of the time it is raining but the high winds are the problem and you regularly get high winds up there. Sorry Scotland fans.
At 5/2 for Scotland to be the first to defeat England worries me. It will be a close game between Scotland and England at Murrayfield but I feel England will sneak it.
In the last 7 matches between the teams, it has been won by 7 points or less on each of those occasions. Scotland has got the better of England the last 3 times they have played, 2 of them coming at Twickenham but this year I feel England will get their revenge.
So, as it stands England is 3-0 in the Six Nations but they have played the 3 weakest teams. Now they play the big boys. Ireland comes to Twickenham in Round 4 and then they travel to France in Round 5. This market doesn’t get to round 5, though in my opinion and their luck runs out against Ireland. Even with the loss of Johnny Sexton Ireland are an absolute force in International Rugby and they sweep England aside at Twickenham quite comfortably. So I would take Ireland to be England’s first defeat of the 2024 Six Nations at 11/4.
Embed from Getty ImagesIn the same market but for Wales. I would expect Wales to beat Scotland in Cardiff and then get defeated by England in Round 2 at Twickenham. So England to be Wales’ first defeat in this year’s Six Nations looks good at 11/8.
In the Bottom 2 market. Italy will be bottom they always are, so you are looking for one place. It is Between Wales and Scotland this year I believe. England will just have enough. The deciding factor is that Scotland has to travel to Cardiff to face Wales and for that reason. Scotland to finish bottom 2 seems the bet. If you feel brave and know Italy will finish last, go for Scotland finishing position 5th with odds of 13/5. It isn’t that much more of a risk but for a bigger gain.
I believe and I could be very wrong 3 places are set in stone. France 1st, Ireland 2nd and Italy 6th. So, If you can predict where England, Wales and Scotland will finish, a nice tidy sum can be made. If I can find a bookmaker that will offer me odds on the complete table, I’d back France 1st. Ireland 2nd, England 3rd, Wales 4th, Scotland 5th and Italy 6th. I’d love to see what odds they are willing to give on this but England 3rd, Wales 4th and Scotland 5th are the bets as singles.
Top Overall Points Scorer
One man stands out above everyone else here and that is France’s Thomas Ramos. He is arguably the best kicker in the world and at the World Cup, he showed that.
If France had reached at least the SFs he would have won the top points scorer market by a country mile but France’s defeat to South Africa in the QFs robbed him of 2 extra games in the competition if they had advanced and with those two extra games Owen Farrell pipped him by 1 point by nobody plays extra games in this Six Nations everyone plays 5.
Owen Farrell will be skipping the competition this year after prioritising his mental health. Owen has suffered from online abuse for years and years and no one knows why but it has taken its toll on him.
Embed from Getty ImagesOwen Farrell is England’s all-time leading point scorer after passing Jonny Wilkinson during last year’s World Cup. So, he should be celebrated by England. Owen has never been amazingly well-behaved on the pitch and maybe that is what the fans have an issue with, but playing he is one of the all-time greats.
Owen Farrell is the first to do this within Rugby and everyone now believes more will follow after Owen. It must have been a very hard decision for Farrell which he did not take lightly but everyone agrees this is the right decision for him.
Taking up the kicking duties for England would be either Marcus Smith or George Ford. I would think Ford would be trusted slightly more as he was for the opening 2 games of the World Cup when Owen Farrell was suspended.
Everyone is unsure who Ireland will opt for after Johnny Sexton decided to hang up his boots. Ciaran Frawley or Jack Crawley will kick for Ireland, but as this is up in the air it’s hard to back any of those. Not that it makes Ramos and France a country mile above any of the players here and we will stick with Ramos at high stakes.
Image Credit: Deposit Photos