Published on 1 Sep 2022 12:20 am (UK Time)
With preseason football underway, NFL bettors are coming out of the
woodwork looking for those magic NFL angles and trends that will give them
a profitable start to the season.
These bettors have probably done a few google searches in their quest for
this coveted information. They have discovered that some coaches like to
win while others don’t seem to care.
Some Coaches Like to Win NFLX Games
They have likely read that Pete Carroll is 33-16 against the spread in the
pre season. They have also read that John Harbaugh is 13-0 the last 3 years
in preseason and Mike Zimmer is another coach that likes to win NFLX games.
No doubt if they’ve uncovered all of that info, they also read that Jason
Garrett doesn’t seem to care about preseason at all!
Be Careful with ATS Trends
Bettors need to be careful with this type of a trend. Sure, if when Pete
Carroll was 0-0 you knew he was going to be 33-16 against the number, you
could have cleaned up. But what about the bettors who keyed in on that
angle last season?
Carroll was 32-13 ATS heading into the 2018 NFL preseason. He proceeded to
go 0-4 straight up and 1-3 against the spread. Very un-Carroll-like
wouldn’t you say? Would have burned a hole in your pocket.
The point is, while it’s helpful to know that some coaches care more than
others about the preseason in the NFL, blindly betting based on that
information alone could be hazardous to your wallet.
Learn to Bet Like a Pro
Those trends are common information. Literally everyone knows about it.
Oddsmakers will make you pay a premium to play those teams and coaches.
To really be successful you need to think outside the box. Most bettors are
lazy. Don’t be. Do a little work so that you can have information that far
fewer bettors have.
Get yourself a spreadsheet. Start tracking how these teams and coaches do
in the 1st quarter. See how they do in the 1st half. Keep track of how they
do in the 2nd half.
This holds true for all sports. We just happen to be discussing the NFL
preseason in this article.
I’ll tell you this. You will be amazed at what that simple record keeping
exercise mentioned above can uncover. You won’t be the only one with that
information. However, you’ll be in a much smaller group.
The group you’ll be in, will be a much more respected group than the group
that blindly bets an NFL preseason game because the coach is 33-16 against
the spread. That’s how you begin to make the transition from being labeled
“the general public” to “sharp player”.
Spreadsheets are Your Friend
Spreadsheets are a bettors best friend. Sharp players have spreadsheets
for literally everything from managing their money to making a 2nd half
Pros don’t make wagers because they have a hunch. They do so because they
know a given line is just plain wrong.
Predictive modeling isn’t as hard as you may think. Much has been written
on the subject and is readily available to those who seek it.
Hopefully this article will light a fuse with some of you and you’ll become
a player the sportsbooks love to hate.
Now, get to work!