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Canelo vs. Jacobs Preview – Tale of the Tape and Prediction

On May 4th, WBA “super”/WBC middleweight champion Saul “Canelo” Alvarez will clash with IBF middleweight champion Daniel Jacobs at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV. The megafight can be seen live on DAZN in the USA and on Sky Sports Main Event in the UK.

Tale of the Tape – Canelo vs. Jacobs

Saul Alvarez Daniel Jacobs
Record 51-1-2 (35 KOs) 35-2-0 (29 KOs)
Nickname “Canelo” “Miracle Man”
Age 28 32
Country Mexico United States
Height 5’8″ 5’11 1/2″
Reach 70 1/2″ 73″
Debut 2005 2007

Fight Breakdown – Canelo vs. Jacobs

If you’re reading this, you probably already know who Canelo Alvarez is. For those who are new to boxing, or the fans who have been sleeping under a rock for the last half decade, here is a quick profile: Alvarez turned pro at just 15 years old. He fought in his first twelve-round fight at age 17. He won his first world title at age 20, and he was in the ring with Floyd Mayweather Jr. at age 23.

Now, at age 28, Alvarez has faced future Hall of Famers, Olympic medalists, undefeated champions, and top pound-for-pound fighters. He is boxing’s biggest star not just because he is backed by Oscar De La Hoya and Golden Boy Promotions or because of his huge “built-in” Mexican and Mexican-American fanbase, but because he has proven time and time again inside the ring that he is one of the best fighters in the world.

Since beating cancer in 2012, Brownsville, NY native Daniel Jacobs has quickly become one of the bigger names in the sport. An accomplished amateur, Jacobs won the WBA “regular” middleweight title in 2014 when he knocked out Jarrod Fletcher at the Barclays Center. Since then, Jacobs has beaten names like Caleb Truax, Sergio Mora (twice), Peter Quillin, Maciej Sulecki, and Sergiy Derevyanchenko. The “Miracle Man” proved he was one of the best middleweights in the world when he fought a close battle with Gennady “GGG” Golovkin on HBO pay-per-view back in 2017.

Jacobs is an all-around fighter who does his best work boxing and counter-punching. He has fast hands, good footwork, solid defense, and power in both hands. He does not have too many weaknesses, but there a couple of note that I should mention. Sometimes he can get a bit sloppy with his punches and ‘slap’ with them. Also, he has been stopped once and dropped numerous times in his career. Jacobs does not have a bad chin, but on-paper he cannot take a punch like Canelo can. One of his biggest advantages in this fight will be his size. Jacobs should enter the round around one ‘weight class’ heavier than Canelo (ten pounds give or take) and he will have a decent height and reach advantage.

Canelo is an excellent counter-puncher with boxing skills, good head movement, a great chin, and good power. He has gotten better and more versatile with each and every fight, especially over the past few years. Alvarez’s boxing IQ is superb and he displays some of the best reflexes and instincts in the ring that I have seen. While he does have decent footwork, Canelo is not the fastest fighter with his feet and he has had trouble with slick boxers in the past.

Danny Jacobs’ best bet is to stick and move and wait for an opportunity to land a big shot. He has excellent boxing skills and he does a great job of setting traps and letting his hands go when his opponent comes in to attack. An inside fight favors Canelo, who loves for his opponents to stand still. For Canelo, he should keep his hands up and avoid getting hit with jabs and left hooks from Jacobs while trying to work his way in. Alvarez should also be careful not to get wild when he has Jacobs on the ropes, as Jacobs does a great job of moving his head and rolling with punches when in those situations. The overhand right and left hook to the body will need to be effective for Canelo to win this fight.

Prediction – Canelo vs. Jacobs

I predict a unanimous decision victory for Canelo Alvarez. As I stated earlier, I believe Jacobs should use his height, reach, and boxing ability on the outside in this fight. The problem for him is that if this fight goes the distance and it is close, Canelo will almost certainly get the decision. So for me, Jacobs has to either dominate Canelo or knock him out to win. Though definitely possible, I doubt either of those things will happen.

Jacobs had a very close fight with Sergiy Derevyanchenko in his last outing. Two judges scored the fight 7-to-5 for Jacobs, while one scored it 7-to-5 for Derevyanchenko (who was dropped once). Sergiy possesses a lot of the same characteristics as Canelo. He is a shorter middleweight with power, a solid chin, good footwork, and boxing ability. Jacobs definitely won that fight, but it was close. A close fight with Canelo that goes the distance is going to result in a loss nine times out of ten. And no, that is not a knock on Canelo. I think he will win the fight with or without help from the judges, but the fact of the matter is that Vegas judging has been kind to Alvarez.

What Danny Jacobs has accomplished is already one of the best comebacks in sports. To go from being told he would never box again to becoming a world champion (technically twice) is already a great story, but if the “Miracle Man” were to defeat boxing’s biggest star in front of a worldwide audience, his comeback would not only be etched into the history books forever, but it would transcend the sport.

Is this a 50/50 fight? Will it go the full twelve, or will we see a dramatic stoppage? Comment below with your prediction for Canelo vs. Jacobs


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