The Champions League last-16 draw is complete, and the road to Budapest is finally clear.
This year’s knockout stage promises elite clashes, tactical battles, and at least one European powerhouse exiting earlier than expected. With Manchester City and Real Madrid drawn together and PSG facing Chelsea, one half of the bracket looks unforgiving.
The other? It may offer Arsenal their clearest path to a final in two decades.
PSG vs Chelsea
Reigning champions PSG begin their defence against a Chelsea side that scraped through a turbulent campaign.
Chelsea’s European return was uneven. Under Enzo Maresca, they produced statement wins over Ajax and Barcelona but also dropped points against Qarabag and suffered defeats to Bayern Munich and Atalanta. Maresca departed before the league phase concluded, with Liam Rosenior stepping in to secure two vital wins – including a dramatic 3-2 victory in Naples – to clinch automatic qualification.
PSG, meanwhile, were dominant early, winning their first three matches and demolishing Bayer Leverkusen 7-2 away. However, late defeats to Sporting and Newcastle cost them automatic qualification. They recovered by eliminating Monaco over two legs.
PSG possess greater European pedigree and firepower, but Chelsea’s youthful energy and unpredictability make this far from a straightforward match-up.
Galatasaray vs Liverpool
Galatasaray survived one of the most dramatic knockout play-off ties, edging Juventus in extra time after a 5–5 aggregate thriller.
Liverpool, despite inconsistency domestically, was far steadier in Europe. Six wins from eight games – including victories over Real Madrid and Inter Milan – secured third place in the league phase.
Both teams thrive in emotional, high-tempo environments. Over two legs, Liverpool’s experience should prevail – but Istanbul remains one of Europe’s most volatile away trips, setting up what could be a classic Champions League clash.
Real Madrid vs Manchester City
Real Madrid and Manchester City have met 15 times in this competition since 2012. The record is perfectly balanced: five wins each and five draws. Only one goal separates them: City have scored 26, Madrid 25.
Madrid narrowly missed automatic qualification before eliminating Benfica. With Kylian Mbappé leading the scoring charts in the Champions League on 13 goals, they continue to look formidable.
City secured eighth place with a decisive final-day victory over Galatasaray. Injuries disrupted their campaign, but this is a squad built for knockout football.
One of Europe’s dominant forces will fall here. The draw guarantees it.
Atalanta vs Bayern Munich
Atalanta, Europa League winners in 2024, eliminated Borussia Dortmund in the knockout phase to reach the round of 16.
Bayern finished second in the league phase, winning seven of eight matches. However, they have reached the semi-final only once in their last five attempts.
This tie feels finely balanced. Bayern’s pedigree gives them the edge, but Atalanta’s intensity can unsettle anyone.
The Other Side of the Bracket
If the top half is loaded with giants, the bottom half looks more open.
And that is where Arsenal sit.
Newcastle vs Barcelona
Newcastle’s return to the knockout stage is historic – it is the first time they have reached this far in the Champions League. The atmosphere at St James’ Park could be decisive.
Barcelona qualified comfortably but remained inconsistent against elite opposition. They have reached only one semi-final in the last six campaigns.
Barcelona hold the advantage in experience, but Newcastle’s energy and atmosphere make this an unpredictable fixture.
Atletico Madrid vs Tottenham
Atletico progressed through the knockout phase and carries years of Champions League experience. Though they have not reached a semi-final since 2018, they remain difficult to eliminate.
Despite poor performances domestically, Tottenham have been strong in Europe. Last year’s Europa League winners conceded the fewest goals in the league phase and kept the most clean sheets.
With Simeone favouring a pragmatic approach and Spurs boasting the competition’s best defence, margins could be razor-thin.
Bodo/Glimt vs Sporting
Bodo/Glimt are the story of the tournament.
The Norwegian side stunned Manchester City and Atletico before eliminating last season’s finalists Inter. Their fearless style has unsettled some of Europe’s most established clubs.
Sporting qualified automatically with impressive wins over PSG and Athletic Club. While they may lack global superstars, they are disciplined and efficient.
One underdog will reach the quarter-finals, while the other’s fairy tale story will come to an abrupt end.
Leverkusen vs Arsenal
Leverkusen progressed after beating Olympiacos, but historically struggled at this stage. They have passed the round of 16 only once since 2011.
Arsenal, by contrast, were flawless in the league phase. Eight wins from eight. Victories over Bayern Munich, Atletico Madrid, and Inter. Last season, they reached the semi-final for the first time since 2009.
Crucially, Arsenal avoid Real Madrid and Manchester City until a potential final. With PSG and Chelsea also in the opposite half, the bracket has opened.
While there are no easy Champions League routes, Arsenal’s path is arguably the clearest it has been in nearly two decades.
The Bigger Picture
Overall this year’s Champions League campaign promises to be as dramatic as ever.
Man City meet Real Madrid in a clash between two European giants for their 17th meeting; Bodo/Glimt aim to continue their fairy tale; and Arsenal might just have their best chance of breaking their European curse.
The Champions League rarely follows the script, and only time will tell which two teams will meet in Budapest.
Below you can watch the Champions League Round of 16 draw: