Rungvisai vs. Estrada 2 Preview – Tale of the Tape and Prediction

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Thailand’s P4P star Srisaket Sor Rungvisai will defend his WBC super flyweight title against Mexico’s Juan Francisco Estrada on Friday, April 26th at The Forum in Inglewood, CA. The fight is a rematch of the pair’s February 2018 battle which resulted in a majority-decision victory for Sor Rungvisai. The fight can be seen live on DAZN in the USA and on Sky Sports Main Event in the UK.

Tale of the Tape – Rungvisai vs. Estrada 2

Wisaksil Wangek Juan Francisco Estrada
Record 47-4-1 (41 KOs) 38-3-0 (26 KOs)
Nickname “Srisaket Sor Rungvisai” “El Gallo”
Age 32 29
Country Thailand Mexico
Stance Southpaw Orthodox
Height 5’3″ 5’4″
Reach 63 1/2″ 66″
Debut 2009 2008

Fight Breakdown – Rungvisai vs. Estrada 2

After losing his first two professional fights by knockout and starting his career 1-3-1 overall, Srisaket Sor Rungvisai would win his next twenty six fights (twenty four by knockout) to earn himself a 2014 WBC title shot against then-champion Carlos Cuadras. Rungvisai was outboxed in the fight and ended up losing after an accidental headbutt to Cuadras forced a stop to the fight.

Rungvisai would rebound from the loss and go on another dominant streak of wins to work his way back to another title shot in March of 2017, this time against #1 P4P fighter Roman “Chocolatito” Gonzalez , who had just won the WBC super flyweight belt from Cuadras. After a back-and-forth battle, Rungvisai would win a controversial majority decision – controversial enough to warrant a rematch later that year. Rungvisai would leave no doubt in the rematch, stopping Gonzalez in the fourth round. Since then, Rungvisai is undefeated in three fights, including the win over Estrada in what was also a close decision.

Rungvisai is a natural slugger who in recent years has complemented his granite chin and crushing power with improved boxing skills. While he is not very slick or flashy defensively, Rungvisai is a much more patient fighter with better footwork than the version who lost to Cuadras years ago. One of the main flaws I see in the 32-year-old’s game is his lack of a consistent jab. While he does use the jab sometimes when attacking, it is normally not thrown with much purpose and he rarely uses it to score points or to keep his opponent honest at range.

Juan Francisco Estrada dropped down to challenge Chocolatito for the WBA light flyweight title back in 2012, losing by unanimous decision. In his next fight, Estrada would win the WBA (super) and WBO flyweight titles, defeating Brian Viloria by split decision. After defending his titles numerous times with dominant performances, Estrada moved up to super flyweight for good, eventually beating Carlos Cuadras in 2017 to earn his title shot against Rungvisai. Estrada would perform well against Rungvisai, displaying great conditioning and boxing skills for much of the fight, but in the end the judges did not believe he did enough to take the WBC title from the champion. In his last fight, Estrada stopped Victor Mendez in seven rounds back in December of 2018.

Estrada is an elite boxer-puncher with good footwork and great counterpunching ability. He does not appear to have huge one-punch power at super flyweight, but his accuracy and timing make him an always-dangerous opponent. Estrada is adept at both boxing and coming forward and has the stamina to fight an active fight for twelve full rounds.

In order to win, Estrada needs to throw more punches than he did in the first fight. Though he landed at a higher connect percentage, he threw some 200 punches less than the champion. By being more active and using his footwork, he can keep Rungvisai from being able to settle in and sit down on his punches.

Rungvisai should use his jab much more often in order to set up his power shots. Normally in rematches of “boxer vs. puncher” fights, the boxer (in this case Estrada) has the advantage because he is more likely to be able to make adjustments to his gameplan (and execute them). Rungvisai needs to make adjustments to his gameplan (such as using his jab more) in order to counter the improvements Estrada is likely to make.

Prediction – Rungvisai vs. Estrada 2

I predict a unanimous decision victory for Juan Francisco Estrada. Rungvisai is a great fighter, but I have a feeling that Estrada will be the more-improved fighter in this one. Expect Estrada’s defense and punch output to be better (at least relative to his opponent’s) than in the first matchup, which I believe will be enough to earn him a win on the cards. Another factor is Rungvisai’s age; he is almost 32 1/2, and while that may not seem very old for most top boxers, most fighters in the lower weight classes have already started to slowly decline by that age.

There is always the chance that Rungvisai catches Estrada with a big shot and stops him, and it is also very possible that the fight will go similar to the first, with the champion’s pressure and power shots making the difference in a close, competitive fight. This is definitely a tough fight to predict between two of the best fighters in the world at the lower weights.

Does Estrada make the necessary adjustments and outbox Rungvisai, or does the champ’s strength and toughness allow him to pull off another great win? Comment below with your opinion.

 

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Justin Graham
Sports fan from the USA. Check out my boxing articles on World in Sport.
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