After the weekend’s fixtures, most teams are left with ten games remaining. So, let’s have a deep dive into how things could end up, but mostly who has the best chances of a successful run in. I’m going to start at the bottom with Wolves, since Rob Edwards’ appointment on the 8th of November, Wolves have picked up 11 of their 13 points in the Premier League.
After beating their rivals Aston Villa at the weekend, they ensured they won’t have the unwanted record of the worst points tally in Premier League history since Derby’s 11-point campaign in 2007/08. It has been a good month or so for Wolves, who face Liverpool twice this week at Molineux, in the league tonight, before their FA Cup tie at the weekend. For Wolves, it is surely too little too late, needing at least 15 points from 9 games to climb out of the relegation zone ahead of Burnley, West Ham and Nottingham Forrest.
As for the other teams facing potential relegation, it gives me great pleasure to add Tottenham to the three teams I just mentioned. I feel this battle will go right to the end. The weekend’s result sums up Burnley’s season really, losing 4-3 to Brentford after fighting back from 3-0 down and thinking they had taken the lead before VAR intervened, to then again thinking they grabbed a point in the dying seconds of the game, for it again to be ruled out by VAR.
Ultimately, Burnley are just out of touching distance, with the Hammers 6 points ahead and Forrest a further 2. The real battle in my mind is for the last relegation spot, West Ham, Nottingham Forrest and Tottenham. This game week could be make-or-break for Spurs, who face Crystal Palace at home on Thursday, when they will know exactly how their competition has fared.
Both West Ham and Forrest have tricky games, but West Ham will be more hopeful away to Fulham compared with Forrest travelling up to the Etihad to face City, who they have only beaten once in eight meetings. Out of the remaining fixtures, Tottenham have to travel to Chelsea, Liverpool and Villa, while trying to work a miracle against Atletico Madrid in the Champions League.
Of the three, though, Forrest has the least favourable fixtures; they play Spurs away, as well as Chelsea and Manchester United. Due to this my pick to go down is Nottingham Forrest but with Spurs you just never know, it will be close weeks to come but ultimately that game at Spurs could be the decider.
Let’s move up to the business end of the league table. First, I want to mention Sunderland, who have surpassed everyone’s expectations this season, being comfortable and losing only two games at home. Secondly, Keith Andrews and Brentford have been brilliant; they have caused some real upsets this season and currently sit in 7th place, chasing a place in Europe next season.
Igor Thiago has been a revelation for them, second in the Golden Boot race only to Haaland with 18 goals. With Thomas Frank leaving at the end of last season most people had Brentford comfortably in the bottom half of their predictions, but with their recruitment and tactical setup they have really surprised everyone, they only sit 2 points behind their west London rivals Chelsea.
So, the battle for the Champions League places is heating up; Brentford, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man United and Villa are all in the hunt. Since Michael Carrick has taken over at United, they have flown into contention with 19 points out of a possible 21. They have the second-longest unbeaten streak in Europe, now spanning eleven games, and they don’t show any signs of slowing down. United’s run has compounded Villa’s terrible form of late, going from challenging for the title at the turn of the year to now scampering for a Champions League spot.
Compared with United, they have picked up just 8 points out of a possible 21 and are without a win at home in their last three home games. Next week these two teams face off at Old Trafford, could this game be the decider for third place? I think so. Just 3 points behind these two are the current Champions, who are under real pressure to qualify for the Champions League after the 500 million they spent on transfers this year. The champions have had next to no consistency this season, conceding poor goals defensively and not having a reliable goal scorer for periods.
Despite their woes, they still sit in a healthy position to pick up the pieces of Villa and United’s stumbles, should there be any. Liverpool will travel to Old Trafford with 4 games remaining, then host Chelsea and travel to Villa Park for the penultimate game. These three games will be where the top four race is decided; there is an opportunity for big swings and momentum to carry into the final game of the season.
Villa finishes their season at home to Liverpool before facing Manchester City on the final day. That really could be a game where everything is on the line. For me, it’s going to be United and Liverpool who get the spots. I feel Villa mentally have given themselves too much to do, and with their fixtures compared to the others, I think it will be really tough for them to stay in the fight.
Let’s get to the title race. The two protagonists, Arsenal and Manchester City, the Master against the Apprentice. This has been a compelling race that looks as if it will go right to the end. Both sides find themselves firing on all four fronts with the face-off in the Carabao Cup final on the 22nd of March, and that could be the momentum swing that either team can grab with both hands.
There is just one game after the cup final before the decider at the Etihad on the 18th of April. For Arsenal it would be catastrophic to not be champions from the positions they have found themselves in earlier in the season, there has been multiple opportunities for the Gunners to take full control of the race and they haven’t, the draw against Nottingham Forrest and the loss to Manchester United stick out, but more recently the collapse from 2-0 up at Wolves.
However, they have dispatched both Spurs and Chelsea in consecutive weeks, though not at their very best. For Arsenal, it has to be all about picking up the points by any means necessary; they have been given a gift-wrapped Champions League draw and have arguably just dealt with their toughest opposition left this season. Arsenal have to block out the media noise; the previous missed opportunities for the title should’ve prepared them for these moments as they enter crunch time, but if not, there will be uproar from the fanbase and the media.
This week could be pivotal, though, as City face Forrest and Arsenal travel to Brighton, where they have struggled previously. City’s game in hand against Palace has yet to be rearranged, but the placement of this game could also play a role in the psychology of the run-in for these sides. Manchester City have been drawn against Real Madrid in the Champions League and will face further tough opposition if they are to win that tie.
This, you would think, will play into Arsenal’s hands. City have to play Cheslea away and will battle it out with Villa on the final day as I mentioned earlier, aside from that though their fixtures look favourable, this is excluding the game where they host Arsenal. In my opinion, the title will be won or lost in the Etihad on April 18th. Anything but a win for City would spell trouble, and a loss for Arsenal would seal the deal.
However, the final at Wembley could shape how the game plays out. A final win at any stage of the season is enough to get a team going, never mind when it is against the title rivals; both sides will be desperate to get one over each other and put themselves in the best position heading into that game in April.
So, with 10 games to go, it’s all to play for across the league; this is why we love the Premier League and why it is, without a doubt, the best league in the world. What conclusions have you come to? Who’s going down? Who’s getting those Champions League places? And who will lift the title?