After consecutive losses to West Ham and Fulham, Arsenal have slipped to 4th in the Premier League table. One week ago, Mikel Arteta’s Gunners sat atop the Premier League at Christmas for a second year running. While Arsenal’s defence is as strong as ever, their attack is faltering. The disappointing losses to West Ham and Fulham were both indicative of Arsenal’s struggles in front of goal in differing ways.
Damaging Defeats Exemplify Attack Issues
The 2-0 loss at home to West Ham on the 28th December highlighted the major problem for Arsenal’s attacking unit this season: a lack of clinical finishing. The Gunners had 30 shots with only 8 on target, accumulating an xG of 2.9. Saka alone had 9 shots, with 3 on target and one agonisingly hitting the post. Their shot quality however was poor. 12 of the 30 shots were attempted outside West Ham’s box and 15 were inside the Irons’ packed penalty area. West Ham defended immensely throughout the game, but with such insurmountable pressure on goal, Mikel Arteta was shocked his side were unable to score:
“We have to try to generate. If we don’t score in 30 shots, then we have to do 50 or 60. It’s the only thing. I can’t imagine more dominance or more touches in the box against a good West Ham side. Today it wasn’t enough to win the game.”
Embed from Getty ImagesThe only shining light in Arsenal’s performance against West Ham was their captain, Martin Ødegaard. The Norwegian was a creative force, finishing the game with 15 shot-creating actions and 6 carries as well as 7 passes into the penalty area. The team as a whole produced 58 shot-creating actions. Creating chances was not a problem for Arsenal against West Ham, but finishing them was. Both were a problem at Craven Cottage.
Embed from Getty ImagesThe New Year’s Eve 2-1 defeat away to Fulham illustrated differing issues with the Gunners attack. Arsenal mustered 13 shots to Fulham’s 15 despite having 60% possession. They also managed to produce only 23 shot-creating actions, a very low number in comparison to the 58 they created against West Ham.
Arsenal did take the lead in this game through Bukayo Saka, but after that only produced an xG of 0.7. This was their second-lowest tally all season. The Gunners struggled to get into the Fulham penalty area, with only 5 passes being completed into the box. Ultimately, Arsenal’s predictable and tired domination of possession led to a failure to create good enough chances.
The Underlying Problems
Arsenal’s attack last season was electric, yet this season it has regressed. Their goals per 90 has sunk from 2.21 to 1.80. This is despite their xG per 90 being comparable to last season, 1.89 (2022/2023) to 1.82 (2023/2024). The clear problem which has arisen this season is poor finishing and predictable play. This is illustrated through their middling shot conversion rate this season which sits at 8.9%, ranking them 10th amongst all Premier League teams. Last season, they had a league-high shot conversion rate of 12.8%.
Arsenal’s leading attacking personnel simply are not producing world-class level finishing which is required of title challengers. For example, Arsenal’s top scorers in the Premier League last season, Gabriel Martinelli and Martin Ødegaard, have a shot conversion rate this season of 5.26% and 7.84% respectively. To put this into context, the top three goal scorers in the Premier League this season all have a conversion rate of over 17% (Mohamed Salah: 17.07%, Erling Haaland: 21.21%, Son Heung-min: 18.75%).
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Furthermore, their shot-creating actions per 90 this season ranks first (29.40 SCA/90) but their goal-creating actions per 90 ranks seventh (3.10 GCA/90). Last season, they ranked fifth for shot-creating actions per 90 (27.50 SCA/90) yet ranked second for goal-creating actions per 90 (3.95 GCA/90). This indicates that Arsenal were one of the deadliest attacking units last season. This season, the story is different.
Mikel Arteta’s team are simply not creating as high-quality chances as they did last season. They ranked top in the Premier League for goals per shot on target last season (0.42), but have fallen to ninth this campaign (0.31). This is despite averaging the most touches in the opposition’s box (36.1) and final third per 90 (228.6)
Arsenal Sacrificing Attacking Prowess for Control
Mikel Arteta has clearly instructed his side to demonstrate more control over each game they play. This is highlighted through their increase in passes completed per 90 to 516.9 this season. As a result of this, teams pack their box which allows the Gunners to control the game but makes scoring incredibly difficult when executed well. The defeats against West Ham and Fulham were highly indicative of this.
Embed from Getty ImagesWhile Arteta’s tactical changes this season have served their purpose, his lack of a clinical finisher could hamper his side’s title challenge. With the January transfer window just opening, the Gunners will look to invest in their faltering attack.
Is Ivan Toney Arsenal Bound?
The leading candidate in many eyes is Brenford’s Ivan Toney. However, with a £100 million price tag on the striker and Arsenal’s Financial Fair Play worries, perhaps Arsenal will have to wait until the summer to do business.
Statistics gathered from FBref, WhoScored and One-Versus-One.
Image Credit | Deposit Photos
A great read and some insightful points made.
Very interesting and in depth analysis!