There’s a twinge of sadness for jumps fans with the end of the National Hunt season just around the corner. There are always highs with the lows however, and one of the feature events of the equine year for all racing fans, the Grand National at Aintree, is now just days away. The tape flies open for the three-day Aintree Festival this Thursday, with the main event, the National, due off at 16:00 on Saturday.
Last year’s victor, Corach Rambler, returns to the Liverpool track looking to follow in Tiger Roll’s and Red Rum’s hoofsteps, by claiming back-to-back victories in the prestigious long-distance contest. The current line-up will be reduced to 50 on Monday, and then cut again on Thursday to the final 34-runners.
Embed from Getty ImagesAnother Corach at Grand National Glory
Twelve months ago, at Aintree, Lucinda Russell’s Corach Rambler became the first winning favourite of the Grand National since Tiger Roll successfully defended his crown at Aintree in 2019. It’s been a rare occasion recently to see the most fancied runner landing the plaudits in the 4-mile 2½ furlong event. Aside from the two mentioned, only three other favourites have entered the winner’s enclosure since the turn of the millennium. Unsurprisingly, following his success last year, Corach Rambler is chalked up at the top of the bookies’ boards once again.
Now 9-years-old, Corach Rambler arrives at Aintree for the 2024 renewal, having taken a similar route prior to his 2023 Grand National triumph. Last year he was victorious in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival before heading to Aintree. This year he would finish a distant 3rd behind the rampant Galopin Des Champs in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. He was never in with a shot at glory, but it was still a positive performance and a good freshen up for his main target of the season.
Can Vanillier Go One Better at Aintree?
Last year’s Grand National runner-up, Vanillier, another 9-year-old, also returns for another crack of the whip. Held up in the rear last April, the grey would make steady progress and despite eating up the ground towards the finish, had to settle for second spot. Trained in Ireland by Gavin Cromwell, he’s racing back on English soil for the first time since running at Aintree twelve months ago.
Vanillier is having to carry an extra 5 pounds in weight this time around. He went off 10 stone 6lbs for the 2023 edition but goes off 10st 11 on this occasion. Though that’s not as big a jump in weight as Corach Rambler’s, who’s going off a whole extra stone heavier (10st 5lbs to 11st 5lbs). A slight concern for Van fans, is that his jumping isn’t always fluent and if even he does travel well, there’s the worry that there’s always going to be one or a few who are just too good on the day.
Embed from Getty ImagesWill Noble Yeats Write Himself into History?
Amazingly Noble Yeats is still only 9-years-old too. He and Sam Waley-Cohen pulled off a Grand National shock when landing the 2022 edition, as a 7-year-old, at odds of 50/1. In doing so he became the youngest winner of the Aintree flagship event since Bogskar in 1940. The Emmet Mullins trainee showed it was no fluke though, when returning last year to finish a creditable 4th, staying on at the end, despite carrying a hefty 11 stone 11lbs. A weight that no winner has carried since Red Rum (12 stone) claimed his second Grand National success in 1974.
Talking of Red Rum, Noble Yeats will become the only other horse apart from the 1970s equine legend in over 125 years, to regain his crown again, having lost it. He returns to chase action after running in hurdles contests all season. Emmet Mullins sent him to Cheltenham in January, where he won the Cleeve Hurdle. He was back at Prestbury Park for the Festival, finishing 7th in the Stayers Hurdle.
Other National Stars Heading to Aintree
Recent Welsh, Scottish and Irish Grand National winners are also in the Aintree line-up this year gunning for further ‘National’ success. Nassalam is the most recent of these, having won the Welsh National at Chepstow by a huge margin in heavy going at the end of December. He has had a spin around the Grand National fences before, when 4th in the Grand Sefton last November. If the rain continues to fall, he could be one that becomes even more interesting. Other notable Welsh National winners who went on to further triumph at Aintree less than 4 months later, include Corbiere and Earth Summit.
Last April, Kitty’s Light, clinched the Scottish National crown for Christian Williams. It made up for his second place in the 2022 renewal at Ayr, where he had been hampered by a faller when looking to launch a challenge. Prior to his 2023 Scottish National success, the then 7-year-old, had also bagged a win at 4 miles plus when claiming the Eider Chase at Newcastle. The most famous horse to win both the Scottish & Aintree Nationals is of course Red Rum. Unlike others who have managed the feat, Ginger McCain’s star would be victorious in both contests in the same year (1974).
Willie Mullins Search for Winner No.2
Despite all the recent Irish success stories at the Grand National, you must go back to 2005 and Hedgehunter for Willie Mullins last and only win in the Aintree thriller. He goes mob-handed into this renewal of the Grand National and the one with the shortest odds currently is I Am Maximus, the winner of the 2023 Irish National. We last saw I Am Maximus in action when winning the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse in February, beating Vanillier by a cosy 14 lengths. The Bobbyjo Chase has been a good prep race for the Grand National in the past. Willie Mullins even won it with Hedgehunter prior to him going on to winning at Aintree.
Embed from Getty ImagesCheltenham Festival Heroes Heading to Aintree
As well as last year’s runner-up, Vanillier, Gavin Cromwell also sends out Limerick Lace, the winner of the Mares’ Chase on the final day of the Cheltenham Festival. Though she’s had an impressive season to date, including a second in the 3-mile Troytown Chase at Navan (the furthest she’s ever raced), she may be too inexperienced to have a fair crack at this year’s Grand National.
One of this year’s more experienced Cheltenham Festival winners in the Grand National field is Harry Redknapp’s Shakem Up’Arry. The 10-year-old jumped magnificently when landing the TrustATrader Plate Handicap Chase at Prestbury Park. I’d have more confidence in him than Limerick Lace, as he’s raced over 3 miles twice previously and also has knowledge of Aintree, albeit on the Mildway course. He likes to be up with the pace too, which tends to come in handy in the Grand National.
The Grand National Stats & Trends
Weight-carrying feats have been few and far between in recent runnings of the Grand National. Only two winning horses have carried over 11st 5lbs in the past 40+ years. Many Clouds (11st 9lbs in 2015) and Neptune Collonges (11st 6lbs in 2012). In addition, there have been only five winners in the past 20+ years, who have carried over 11 stone. A further concern for those at the top end of the weights for this year’s renewal is how soft the going will be, with rather gloomy weather forecasts for the days leading up to the big race.
Weight trend negatives: Noble Yeats, Capodanno, Nassalam, Coko Beach & Conflated
Too Much Too Young
As mentioned earlier, Noble Yeats in 2022 was the first horse aged under 8 to win for over 80 years, so experience seems to be one key ingredient of what makes up a Grand National winner. Whether that’s experience over the trip, fences or a mixture of both. A high percentage of recent winners had at least 7 runs over 3 miles or further. A good fence-jumping background is also a plus, with a large number of winners having had 10 or more previous Chase races in the bag prior to their Grand National examination.
Age & Trip trend negatives: Meetingofthewaters, Limerick Lace, Nassalam, Adamantly Chosen, Malina Girl & The Goffer
Raters Gonna Rate
Twelve of the previous 14 Grand National winners (and all of the last eight) were officially rated between 146-160. The last three winners, Minella Times, Noble Yeats & Corach Rambler all had similar ratings, 146, 147 & 146 respectively. Those high in the ratings have tended to fair badly until recently. Though Tiger Roll (159 in 2019) & Many Clouds (160 in 2015) were successful in the past eight runnings.
Ratings trend negatives: Noble Yeats, Capodanno, Nassalam, Coko Beach, Desertmore House, Shakem Up’Arry, Amirite, Angels Dawn, Conflated, Where It All Began
Embed from Getty ImagesA Couple to Keep an Eye On
With a week to go, Grand National selections/predictions/thoughts tend to change on a daily basis. Currently there are a couple with each-way value that tickle my fancy. I did watch Kung Fu Panda 4 with my little’uns the other day, but that has nothing to do with me giving a tick to Panda Boy. It could be risky, the fact that Martin Brassil’s trainee has never raced away from the Emerald Isle previously. However, he’s a consistent sort who’s impressed in big field contests over the past couple of years. He likes to be ridden up with pace, which is a good quality to have in the Grand National.
In Panda Boy’s last three Chase events in 27+ runner fields, he’s finished 3rd, 5th and 2nd. All of those races were run in soft going conditions. He’s produced good performances in the previous two Paddy Power Chases during the Leopardstown Christmas Festival. He also impressed in last year’s Irish National and would have finished nearer if not making a mistake 2 out.
Keeping It in the Family
We’ve had a few Grand National fairytale stories throughout the years. Another one could be in the offing this year, with Latenightpass. The 11-year-old was bred (and is now owned) by Pippa Ellis. He is trained by her son, Tom Ellis, a champion point-to-point handler. He has taken out a professional training licence specifically to have a chance at winning the Grand National. Dan Skelton had been training the horse earlier this season while Tom was securing his pro-licence. To complete the family fantasy narrative, Tom’s wife, Gina Andrews is set to saddle up for the ride.
Latenightpass is one of the most experienced horses in the field over the National fences, having ridden in the Foxhunters’ Chase three years in-a-row (2021-2023). He finished 2nd in 2021, won in 2022 and came 4th last year. He had two good run-outs over Cheltenham’s X-Country earlier this season, finished 1st and 2nd. An event that has usually been a good indicator of Grand National chances in the past.
ITV are screening selected races live from all three days of the Aintree Festival. Racing TV are showing every race live. The Grand National is due off at 16:00 on Saturday. Keep up with today’s horse racing results via Racing Post.
Keep your eyes peeled for the latest Grand National results.
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