All equine eyes are focused on Liverpool from Thursday, as we’re set for three enthralling days of high-quality horse racing action at Aintree. The excitement builds to a thrilling crescendo on Saturday, with the world’s greatest steeplechase, the Grand National. An estimated 600 million viewers will be tuning in for the headline attraction, making it one of the most watched sporting events on the globe.
Before the BIG one, we’ve got 18 intriguing contests to peruse and cogitate over (and two more to come following the National). There are four Class 1 events to savour during Thursday’s opening day, including the Aintree Bowl Chase (14:55) and Aintree Hurdle (15:30). So let’s not waste any more time, here is your Aintree Festival Day 1 preview.
Embed from Getty ImagesManifesto Novices’ Chase (13:45)
Day 1, race 1 is a 2 1/2 mile chase contest for horses aged 5 years and older. The race is named after equine legend, Manifesto, who ran in the Grand National nine times (1895-1904), winning twice and being placed on another four occasions. He’s one of only 7 horses since the Grand National was first run in 1839 to win it more than once. The race was first run at the Aintree Festival in 2009, with Tom George’s 6-year-old, Tartak claiming the honours. While there’s only ever been one winning favourite (Captain Conan in 2013), horses in the top-3 in the betting have tended to come out on top, with the biggest priced winner Dan Skelton’s Protektorat at 17/2 in 2021.
Cheltenham Festival Flops
On the whole, runners who have previously raced at the Cheltenham Festival haven’t performed well in the event. Uxizandre in 2014 is the last horse to place at the Cheltenham Festival and go on to ‘Manifesto’ success. The last three ‘Manifesto’ winners (Protektorat, Millers Bank & Banbridge) didn’t even race at Prestbury Park. Of the 5 runners, Blow Your Wad is the only horse in the line-up who didn’t race at the Cheltenham Festival.
So let’s have a look at those runners who raced at the Cheltenham Festival and who figure near the top of the market. Turners Novices’ Chase winner, Grey Dawning, is too short a favourite for me, especially with Festival runners having had such a bad record and I’d like to find some value elsewhere. Ginny’s Destiny who finished second in the ‘Turners’ is lacking in previous hurdle experience, which past winners of the ‘Manifesto’ have had. Willie Mullins’ Il Etait Temps is one that interests me. A well beaten 3rd behind Gaelic Warrior in the Arkle, after making some early mistakes, he rallied well and was staying on.
Pick: Il Etait Temps
Check all the latest Manifesto Novices’ Chase prices
Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle (14:20)
We switch tack, with the spotlight shifting to the young hurdling whippersnappers. Nicky Henderson’s Sir Gino who sadly missed out on the Cheltenham Festival when heavily fancied, is expected to gain some compensation here at Aintree. Triumph Hurdle winner, Majborough, isn’t entered, but those who finished 2nd and 4th behind him at Cheltenham (Kargese & Nurburgring), both line-up. Connections of those two will fancy their chances, considering four of the previous seven ‘Anniversary’ winners were placed in the Triumph Hurdle. We even had a 9th placed Triumph Hurdle horse (Knight Salute, 2022) going on to win at Aintree.
Like with the day 1 opener, those near the top end of the bookies’ boards have tended to fair well in the ‘Anniversary’, with 6 of the last 7 winners priced at 3/1 or shorter. Sir Gino could be a stellar star in the making, but with 75 days off the track, I’d like to take him on with Kargese. Willie Mullins’ 4-year-old, who impressed when finishing second in the Triumph Hurdle despite taking a keen early hold, will have the fitness factor in his favour.
Pick: Kargese
Check all the latest Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle prices
Embed from Getty ImagesAintree Bowl Chase (14:55)
Shishkin, like Sir Gino, will be hoping for some Aintree redemption too, after missing out on the Cheltenham Festival. Nicky Henderson’s 10-year-old is also back to defend his Bowl crown after beating Ahoy Senor by a 1 ½ lengths in the 2023 edition. The latter runner is also in the line-up once again.
His seven 2024 Bowl rivals include the 2022 King George VI Chase winner, Bravemansgame. The bookies don’t see him as Shishkin’s main rival though, that tag sits with Gerri Colombe. Gordon Elliott’s star has never finished worse than 2nd in twelves races under rules (9 wins & three 2nds). He would impress when losing to Galopin Des Champs in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and sparkled on his Aintree debut twelve months ago (Mildmay Novices’ Chase). With eight of the last ten renewals being won by the favourite or second favourite, we could be set for a dazzling duel between Shishkin and Gerri Colombe.
Shishkin looks to join a list of names that include Clan Des Obeaux & Silviniaco Conti, horses who have won the Aintree Bowl in back-to-back years. A worry for Shish supporters is that no Bowl winner since What A Friend in 2010 has won their previous outing prior to running at Aintree. That trend also counts against another of the leading fancies, Corbetts Cross. Shishkin was last seen out when winning the Denman Chase at Newbury by over 4 lengths. A high percentage of Bowl winners also last raced within the last 40-odd days and that Denman Chase win came over 60 days ago.
Pick: Gerri Colombe
Check all the latest Aintree Bowl Chase prices
Aintree Hurdle (15:30)
Nicky Henderson is the all-time leading Aintree Hurdle trainer, having won the 2 mile 4 furlong event six times in the past twelve editions. The Seven Barrows handler sends out a couple for the 2024 renewal, but unlike his previous winners, neither Luccia nor Marie’s Rock are near the top of the market. Both are double-figure prices (or near to being) currently and we’ve not had a horse win at bigger odds than 15/2, since Al Eile in 2007.
Bob Olinger, who is making his Aintree debut, is the current market leader. His previous three appearances on English soil, all came at Cheltenham, where he holds a 100% record. The winning margins of those three successes totalled over 54 lengths. One slight negative for the Gordon Elliott star, is his age. There have been only two Aintree Hurdle winners aged over 8 since 2000, and Bob Olinger is 9-years-old (as is Marie’s Rock & Beacon Edge is 10). Recent winners have also had a race during the past 30 days, whereas Bob Olinger (and market rival, Impaire Et Passe) have not been in action since the Irish Champion Hurdle at the beginning of February.
I’d prefer to have an each-way punt with Luccia. She finished in the frame at Aintree last year, when 3rd in the Top Novices’ Hurdle. She was also impressive in her recent blow-out at the Cheltenham Festival, where finishing third to State Man in the Champion Hurdle, despite taking a keen early hold. Previous Aintree Hurdle victors took a similar route, eight of the recent ones ran in the Champion Hurdle with five of them finishing in the top-3 at Cheltenham.
E/W Pick: Luccia
Check all the latest Aintree Hurdle prices
Embed from Getty ImagesFoxhunters’ Open Hunters’ Chase (16:05)
The Amateur riders get their moment in the spotlight and we get our first sighter of the Grand National fences this week. It’s usually just as hard picking a winner of this as it is in Saturday’s big one. Although the previous two Foxhunters’ winners, Famous Clermont and Latenightpass were priced at 9/2 and 7/2 respectively, so maybe it’s getting easier. The 2023 runner-up, Bennys King, is in the line-up, along with Cat Tiger, who finished 2nd in 2022 and 3rd in 2021.
Famous Clermont broke the age trend in claiming the Foxhunters’ honours last year, when only 8-years-old. There hadn’t been a successful horse younger than 9 in the amateur riders event since 1994 (Killeshin), before then. That was likely to be a one off, so I’m happy to readily avoid Its On The Line (7-years-old) and Romeo Magico (6-years-old).
A large proportion of recent winners had been in action during March prior to their shot at Foxhunters fame. So the fact that Tea Clipper hasn’t raced for 64 days could adversely affect his chances. A few at huge odds haven’t raced for a year or so and also get scrubbed off my list. Two I like are Time Leader and Annamix. Both have impressive recent run-outs and form and have produced good performances in big fields at Aintree. I’m edging towards Miss Hannah Roach’s Time Leader, who placed in the Hunters’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival and came 5th in this contest last year.
Pick: Time Leader (E/W option: Bennys King)
Check all the latest Foxhunters’ Open Hunters’ Chase prices
Red Rum Handicap Chase (16:40)
The first handicap of the 3-day Aintree Festival. It was formerly known as the Aintree Chase and renamed in 1997, in honour of the greatest Grand National horse. It’s currently a very open-looking affair, with Unexpected Party the marginal favourite. Not that anyone wants that tag, with only five winning jollies since 1992. The last one that entered the winner’s enclosure was Paul Nicholls’ Edgardo Sol in 2012.
Runners who won last time out prior to heading to Aintree have only won once in the past twelve editions (Editeur Du Gite in 2021). Using that logic, knocks a fair few off the ones-to-watch list. Unexpected Party (gone), Cheltenham (gone), Homme Public (gone). Guy, and Whiskeywealth also get scratched.
The Last Day raced to victory in 2022 for Evan Williams. However, he is one of only 3 horses aged over 9 to win in the past 29 editions. Dancing On My Own is now 10-years of age. He may have finished 1st last year and 2nd in 2022, but he might find it tougher this time. By the same token, Bythesametoken could also find some of the younger brood too good over the 2 mile trip.
There have been some impressive weight-carrying winning feats over the years. Dancing On My Own won with 11-10 on his back last year and Oiseau de Nuit with 11-8 in 2013. However, the vast majority of recent winners (17 out of the last 20) have won carrying 11-1 or less. So it could be a negative for Saint Roi, who is weighted at 11-6 for this event.
Pick: Path D’oroux (E/W option: Irish Blaze)
Check all the latest Red Rum Handicap Chase prices
Embed from Getty ImagesNickel Coin Mares NH Flat Race (17:15)
And so, to the Day 1 finale, where the ladies take centre stage. A NH Flat Race or ‘Bumper’ over 2 miles 1 furlong for 4 to 6-year-old mares. The race is named after the 1951 Grand National winner, Nickel Coin. She was the last mare to win the world’s most prestigious steeplechase. Of the three ages allowed to race, 6-year-olds have fared the worst, with just two wins overall. The last of those was Nicky Henderson’s Kayf Grace in 2016.
There are three 6-year-olds in the current line-up: Mongibello, Just Call Me Lucy & Solid Silver. The 6-year-olds may have the worst winning record, but only one 4-year-old has claimed victory in the last 12 editions. All the youngest age group are priced at 20/1 or bigger, so have been readily dismissed by the bookmaking brigade.
A large percentage of recent ‘Nickel Coin’ victors have raced within 60-days of them running at Aintree. So Willie Mullins’ other fancied mare, Baby Kate, could be lacking race fitness. She’s not been seen since winning at Cheltenham in mid-November. Speculatrix (414 days), Metkayina (136 days), & Solid Silver (118 days) have also been off the track for lengthy spells.
E/W Pick: Listentoyourheart
Check all the latest Nickel Coin Mares NH Flat Race prices
Aintree Festival TV Coverage
Five races (14:20-16:40) are shown live on ITV, with every race at the Aintree Festival shown live on Racing TV. Keep up with today’s horse racing results via Racing Post.
Good luck All!!! Let us know your Day 1/Aintree Festival/Grand National selections. Click on ‘Comments’ under the main article title at the top of this piece)
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